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Scarlet Fire

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That was quick!

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Well, I ain't often right but I've never been wrong.
It seldom turns out the way it does in a song.
Once in a while you get shown the light
In the strangest of places if you look at it right.

(Grateful Dead)

The two sides of the Hump Day tetherball...


Reasons for ursine optimism?

  • While two days do not a month make, Boo mapped out a defined risk game plan yesterday.
  • Google got thumped, leading to some N's under S's. Beta led the performance anxiety higher off the October lows.
  • Some non-confirmations emerged during this latest spike higher.
  • Extended tapes and lopsided sentiment often lead to trap doors.
  • Gap fillage (and downside reversal) in the homies.
  • Alotta firms close their '05 books today, potentially altering the supply/demand dynamic into year-end.

Resaons for bovine faith?

  • A pullback to S&P 1245 would be a healthy retest of recent acne.
  • No news is good news when performance anxiety manifests.
  • The brokers, banks and trannies, despite signs of recent supply, are a strong day away from all-time highs.
  • Corporates.

Net/net?

Overbought tapes can become more overbought, particularly when emotions are running rampant. I sense a meaty pullback but the timing has yet to crystallize in my mind's eye. It could be sooner (S&P 1275 is a relatively tight stop for those looking to play that way) or it could be early '06 business (after the performance fee checks clear).

Good luck today.

R.P.

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