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Random Thoughts

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Way to hum cookie...

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  • Holy guacamole! It's a barn burner on the Buzz today! A lil' Laurie, a gaggle of Goepfert, some powerful Pepe, very good Vitaliy, a few Fleck sightings, a handful of Herb, a dose of the good Doctor J, a spate of Succo, a run with Reamer, fantastic Fil, a kernel of Kenneth and, of course, some muscular Macke! Wow.

  • So you know, I "took my trade" on the bull costume this morning as I sense a consolidation into the S&P 1220-1225 area. I've still got a spate of upside exposure (pharma, semis, energy) and my longer-term holdings (energy, metals) but, from a discipline over conviction standpoint, I felt that getting undressed was consistent with my vibe.

  • Merck (MRK) is up 4% on the favorable Vioxx ruling this morning. And speaking of drugs (not hugs), please note the upside gap in Pfizer (PFE) between $22.5 and $24.

  • We don't have a cow. We gotta bull...

  • Please note the homies as they flipped a hard downside switch just as they edged into the technical minefield that is HGX 507-514.

  • Keep your eyes peeled on Exxon-Mobil (XOM) $58. It's a monster resistance level and the oil giant is trying to barge through it.

  • What are you doing in the bathroom all night and day?!? Why don't you give someone else a chance?!?

  • While each individual metric has obvious appeal, viewing any one discipline is inherently flawed in my view.

    • Fundamentals, while providing the basis of valuation, boast the best news at the top and puke the worse news at the bottom (the Minx is forward looking).
    • Technicals, while offering an awesome framework with which to trade, are "better" higher (after a breakout) and "worse" lower (after a breakdown).
    • Psychology, while shaping the perception that is reality, is a contrary indicator at extremes.
    • And the structural metric can mechanically support the capital markets until the fragile financial fabric springs a leak.

      That's why I've always viewed the dew as an assimilation. The stronger the four legs, the more stable the table.

  • Take my wife, please!

  • We can share the women, we can share the wine. We can share what we got of yours 'cause we done shared all of mine.

  • Mini-Minyan Mailbag

    "Toddo, this gentleman has been bang on since 2000 for precious metals. He called the top for mining shares in both 2004 and 2005. Unfortunately he does not write very often as he now devotes his time to the task of becoming self sufficient (yes..he believes that our way of life will change dramatically in the not to distant future).

    Volumes on this move up in precious metals have been terrible and typically this leads to very (farther than you think) sharp corrections. Further precious metals always take a hit during treasury auctions ($95b next week). My analysis indicates the HUI could fall to 150 and the XAU to 72 over the next two-three months

    Just a heads up for those fearing they missed the move or clamoring to get on board. If we should get to those levels I suspect only the brave will buy. The content on the site just gets better and better. Minyan LC"


    MLC,

    Thanks for the note--not familiar with that gentleman but a shakeout wouldn't shock me (that's the vibe I got from the Seer of Sautville). I am allowing for that scenario in my probability spectrum as my time horizon is longer-term. Best of luck and thanks for the snaps.

  • N's over S's (SOX over financials)

  • NDX 1635ish is a level to watch. It was last December's high and where we failed this past summer.

  • The fly in the upside ointment continues to be the back handed slap in the volatility sisters (VXO -8%).

  • Daisy woulda made 69 but she's not that type of cow.



    R.P.
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