Clash of the Critters
All eyes on Elmer!
Should I stay or should I go now?
Should I stay or should I go now?
If I go there will be trouble
An' if I stay it will be double
Good morning and welcome back to the bovine shack. Hoofy is on a role as of late as he tries to define his end-of-year fate. He swallowed the Dell news without a flinch and truly believes he buried the Grinch. "My tea leaves are green and my team now has steam," he said as he spread the Matador dream, "all that we need is more self-esteem to convert the bears who continue to scheme." Will he now finish what he's begun or will the upside soon come undone? It's tricky, it's Thursday, it's likely to thrill so kick off your shoes for a chill in the 'Ville!
Our ol' pal Elmer will step to the mike today and sing his swan song to thy faithful. The 10:00 text will shape the tape and provide ample excuse for either side of the ride. The bulls have the mojo-there's little denying that-and they'll look to put some distance between themselves and the recent breakout through S&P 1200 (and 1210). Boo is quick to note that we're still testing the intra-day trendline from the September highs (and he'll point to the udder meltage in the volatility indices) but Hoofy has already put him in the pay-no-mind club.
As Minyans know, and as a function of my big picture concerns, I've developed a pretty tight relationship with Boo over the years. I'm not playing favorites, per se, I just vibe with him on many of his big picture concerns. This latest Hoofy hug is a "pure trade" as we try to make hay while the sun shines and dance between the elephants. My "stop" is currently set under S&P 1195 (rolled up from S&P 1178) although I'm inclined to make some sales (rotate some risk) if we get some upside probage this morning.
A few Random Thoughts before I hop the fence and join my boyz on the Buzz:
• I opined yesterday that if the tech is to trek, the semis will likely lead the upside speed. While the fundies "suck" (from what I hear), the price action is a function of performance anxiety and participation. In other words, in the context of the hedge fund hot potato, they're simply vehicles. That doesn't make it "right," it's just "what is."
• I've been nibblin' on some silver stuff of late but that has little to do with the above mentioned trading try. I'm leaving plenty of room for further adds (lest we get a sharp shakeout) but I'll sleep better knowing that I've got some chips behind this sector. As I said in my Ojai speech, I humbly expect energy and metals to share the leadership baton in the years ahead.
• For those who aren't familiar with Phil "my pockets" Erlanger, I encourage you to swing by the Hamzei Analytics chat this afternoon after the close. He's a sharp cookie and has a unique process that many of the world's biggest funds have adopted. Take advantage of it, Minyans, as this is an opportunity to ask him some questions and interact live.
• The Ruby Peck Foundation for Children's Education will launch the all-star guitar auction on December 7th. If you haven't sniffed out Ruby's new digs, take a gander when you can. It's good kuon any way you slice it!
Good luck today.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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