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Random Thoughts


We now return to the regularly scheduled catalysts.


  • More dollar squalor as we tickle 8-year lows on the DXY. The greenback acted punk all day yesterday (with gold down big) and is being sold in the face of electoral clarity. A global vote of no confidence?

  • "The reaction to the election is the best in history for SP futures. The index opened lower in '84, '88, and '92 on the day after the election. In '96 and '00, the SP opened higher by just .08 and .07 percent respectively. " -Jason Roney on this morning's Buzz.

  • Kerry is taking his trade and cutting his losses. Four more years of Dubya. Here we go...

  • Bite me!

  • Professor Goepfert's Buzz on the uber-low TRIN reading: "Despite its shortcomings, I follow the TRIN regularly. I generally avoid the first few minutes of trading as useless noise, but after the first 1/2 hour the NYSE TRIN was still very low at .25. The other times I show it as being low this year were 8/16, 5/19 and 3/29. If you look at those on a chart, they generally coincided with the initial thrust out of a major low. Low TRIN readings are NOT bearish in and of themselves, but require some sort of context.I do think the current context is more bearish than the other dates above. A 5-day average of the closing readings is now quite low, and some longer-term averages are becoming low as well. That makes today's reading look more like a "blow-off", but I think care should be taken before assuming it's a bad sign."

  • I will be scribin' the vibe tomorrow morning before breaking for two lunch meetings and heading down to Rubyville. The whole fam is surprising the Margarita Maven for her 84th birthday and there is no way I'm gonna miss this one.

  • NDX 1525 is an intraday triple top dating back to February.

  • S&P 1150 is another level to watch, although the resistance "zone" layers through S&P 1165.

  • Monkey business!

  • Succo and I will be enjoying pomegranate margaritas with uber-Minyan Mark Kellner tonight. Mark shocked the critters with a massively generous donation to the Ruby Peck Foundation last December and this 'fest is way overdue!

  • Biotech (+4.5%) and big cap pharma (+3.5%) continue to benefit from the rotation.

  • Talk about kid gloves!

  • And I thought Collins was going to India for vacation!

  • The F-troop is strugglin' today as Aunt Fannie (FNM:NYSE) burps back 3%. Please remember that they will release "earnings" before November expiration.

  • The semis have been a source of funds all session. That may not be actionable but IF we see a reversal similar to yesterday (low probability), those weak knees will likely bend first.

  • What ever happened to Howard Jones?

position in fnm

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

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