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Random Thoughts

By

Laurie, I better not find you wandering through rural Australia!

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  • For all those applying to the Luscious Fan Club, please know that Elvis will have to cool his heels. A very special thanks to Television's JeffMacke© for filling my inbox with warm (albeit premature) wishes.

  • "COT data released Monday revealed increasing short positions in Nikkei futures by large speculators. We pointed out this development last week, claiming it is an unusual and bullish circumstance. The last similar occurrence to that which we are seeing on the Nikkei was on the SPX in the fall of 2000. As the bull market was turning into a bear market in 2000, commercial hedgers were liquidating net long positions and turning net short (at the time, a historically odd occurrence). Speculators were viewing the correction as an opportunity to buy the weakness, and were persistently buying on the way down. The hedgers got it right, and the tip-off was their positioning in the face of trend: they essentially became trend followers, again a very odd occurrence. With the Nikkei, the commercials have again become trend followers, and we view that bullishly as its rarity is often worthy of notation." -- Lehman technician Jeff DeGraaf

  • Some traders are citing that for option orders of ten or fewer contracts, the percentage of calls to open interest is the highest since last December (a potential sign of toppy bullish speculation amongst smaller investors).

  • A shot in the But-tocks!

  • T-minus eight days until the all-star guitar auction. This is our biggest philanthropic effort to date and we sincerely appreciate support from ye faithful.

  • "Year end rally or year end fizzle? Did ya know that since 1900, 12 peaks were made from the period between November 3 to January 19? And considering that the second year of a presidential term is the worst of the presidential terms in this century, could this year-end rally be the last gasp for this relatively old, at over 3 years, cyclical bull ? With all of the optimism floating around the Street, I'll make my bet that this is the 13th peak since 1900. Not advice, just a heads up." -- Bennet Sedacca on today's Buzz.

  • Do you wanna plug your school into the UMV syndicate? We would love for you to make the introduction and help build the educational vibe in the city of critters.

  • The dollar index, after testing acne support near DXY 90.77, has snapped back to the black (+ 80 bips).

  • Walkers for street walkers?

  • Speaking of Television's JeffMacke©, he's been all over the "decent top line but margins will be soft (as a function of deep discounts) retail vibe." I think he's spot on.

  • I coulda sworn it was the Hamburgler!

  • Buzz Bit (from 10:22): The homies, fresh off yesterday's gang-style shooting, have tacked on a deuce (2%) in early trade. This lift, while snazzy, has effectively filled the opening gap (HGX 538). If Boo is gonna reassert his squirt, I would think he'll be keeping a close eye on that level.

  • I've already had three cups of coffee but I've always got room for another Cup of Jo! Anyone debating the year-end rally will do well to read the latest tickle from Tuttle.

  • Congrats to Nan Wang, the inaugural recipient of the Ruby Peck Memorial Scholarship at Stony Brook University!

  • John Bollinger & his Bands will be featured in the Hamzei Analytics chat room tomorrow immediately following the close. John will speak ont the current state of the Minx and plans to devote plenty of time to Q & A. Click here to register if you don't currently have a SuperPlatinum subscription.

  • A gorilla has accumulated 80,000 QQQQ December 41 puts today.

  • Vibes from Snoop Tony Dwyer of FTN Midwest Securities: "At the end of the Thanksgiving week, the S&P 500 was up 8% (off the October low) without a break. Anytime there is such a sharp rally, the call for an "overbought" correction is heard. As we put on our technical hat, we believe it is important to define "overbought" and study what has happened in such an occurrence since the bull market began in March 2003. Each morning we track the percentage of overbought and oversold stocks in the S&P 100 (OEX) using a 14-day stochastic oscillator, which measures the closing price relative to the price range over the last 14 days. When 70% of the OEX components are in overbought territory, we categorize it as internally "overbought." This took place as of last Wednesday's close. There have only been 8 other occurrences since the March 2003 market low, where overbought readings reached 70% or greater. Conventional wisdom indicates a high reading would suggest the market is due for a pullback, but we found this not to be the case. History suggests any pullback should be limited when sharp rallies are accompanied by broad participation. Out of 8 occurrences:
    • One Month Return. The SPX was higher 1 month later 5 of 8 times ( 62.5%) with an average return of 0.95%. The worst performance over the period was a loss of -2.98% vs. the best gain of 4.39%.
    • Three Month Return. After 3 months the SPX was higher 6 out of 8 times (75%) with an average return of 4.05% (Table 1). The worst performance was a loss of -2.78% and the best was a gain of 13.81%."

  • No Meehan, you can't volunteer for the case study. She's much too old for you.

  • Elmer!


    R.P.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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