May peace be with you!
Girl when I was on my own
Chasing you down
What was it made you run?
Trying your best just to get around.
It's just another manic Monday as the tape ripped, dipped and gripped to start the new week. Virtually everyone and their sister was on board the breakout train this morning before a combination of bond meltage, Wal-Mart (WMT:NYSE) flaccidity and rate-sensitive supply quickly put a damper on the enthusiasm. It looked like dire straits for the bovine greats but they found footing near the NDX uptrend and toed the line for things so fine.
The resulting action has left us in a bit of a stand still as the S&P '04 highs rest above and the aforementioned tech trendline is nestled below. The peripheral influences are similarly mixed as crude grinds higher, the dollar rests easy and the metals are precious again (it should be noted that the underlying action in the metal names isn't nearly as jazzy). And we all see the fixed income fugliness although the masses seem split on both the cause and effect.
Fundamental data points will soon start hitting the tape as CS First Boston's tech fete begins tomorrow and Novellus (NVLS:NASD) will offer their mid-quarter update after the close. Beeks will then make a Hump Day cameo before Intel (INTC:NASD) takes center stage on Thursday and the payroll data arrives in force on Friday. All of this will occur against a sentimental backdrop that is either complacent and vulnerable or anxious and self-fulfilling. The simple truth is that it's all of the above but the resulting price action will dictate which characteristics are the proper description.
I'm gonna keep this missive short as I just glanced at the clock as it ticks and it tocks. I don't have an uber-strong feel for the tape here but that's been known to change on a dime. I respect the upside--particularly after the bovine have caught their breath--but am acutely aware that the tape is ripe for disappointment. It's ironic, in a way, as the ursine tend to get sheepish when the sheep are most emboldened. But if I've learned anything over the years, that's precisely the time to keep your right hand up.
Fare ye well into the bell.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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