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Random Thoughts

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I don't think this 'correction' is over yet but I'm not making a bet that it continues today (if that makes any sense).

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  • Ladies and Gentleman, may I present Miss Wendy Starland, the CCA musical talent for Friday night.

  • Tickle my tea leaves? Nondescript and somewhat mixed. If it wasn't for the traction in the brokers, I would say "beware of trap doors" into the afternoon.

  • The true FOMC conundrum: Raise rates to appease foreign holders of our debt and dollar or lower rates as an economic steroid? Welcome to the dark corner, Ben.

  • Drillers? I don't even know'er! Still, watch the OSX as they've got some textbook reverse dandruff (reverse head and shoulders). They could very well join the metals (again) as the best bet for an upside jet.

  • Deutsche Bank lowered their forecast for 4Q GDP from +1% to 0%, largely due to the weakness in durable goods this morning and weak consumer spending.

  • As past support is future resistance, S&P 1390 is an obvious level as we chew through the dew. I don't think this 'correction' is over yet but I'm not making a bet that it continues today (if that makes any sense).

  • "There might be one chance today to slow the decline, if not also limit its ultimate target. But S&P's ranged overnight around Monday's close and have showed no interest in rejecting yesterday's drop. Any bounce will be considered a correction, and likely to resolve in the decline's resumption." Professor Rod David on this morning's Buzz.

  • Hey, if your Buzz ever blinks, yell ARMAGEDDON! and hit F5. It should fix it in a blink. Also, for newbie Minyans, be sure to click on preferences on the bottom of your Buzz. The whole point of this product is to allow you to craft an information profile as you would a risk profile.

  • "SPX breadth of -14:1 was the worst day since early June. In that instance the market's weakness persisted for another month, and lost an additional 4%. Historically big breadth spikes tend to be within the midst of a correction, not the end of a correction." Lehman's aptly named technician Jeff DeGraaf.

  • Do NOT put that song in my head!

  • The Following Buzz Took Place Between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM

    Hey Harry, look at this. What's matter with these cans?

    Did you ever feel like a Jerk? You know, going about your everyday business when, all of a sudden, things start getting slippery? It sure felt that way yesterday when Boo threw a blanket party for the bulls. And while Hoofy is fighting back today, this war is far from over.

    As it stands, the action in the brokers (after their 4% smack yesterday) is holding, giving hope to the Turnaround Tuesday crowd. The banks are laggy, yes, but the financials as a whole--coupled with breadth that is 2:1 (either way)--typically provides the best intraday trading tell.

    There are alotta reasons why Marie, as a proxy for the market,
    should puke (even if she doesn't wanna). Chatter is getting louder that debasement (away from the dollar) is in the cards---whether it's Hong Kong to the Renminbi, the Middle East to the Euro or diversifying into gold. I "hate" invisible catalysts but there is utility in recognizing potential risks.

    How you play is a function of your time horizon. Active types should lean against levels and define risk. Macro folks should use price to their advantage and scale according to price. Me? I do a little of both and a lot of nothing. While I used to pay $90 million commish to the Street (yes, per year), I've learned that the ability not to trade is often as valuable as trading ability.

    And, given the fact that 9,000 hedgies are standing in a circle shooting at each other, I'd just as soon let the dust clear a bit. There promises to be alotta leftover thermoses by the time we're done.


R.P.

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Position in financials, metals

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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