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Random Thoughts


Welcome back!

  • C-P-Eye?

  • It was a thankful weekend as the Queen and I joined Macke's clan for a few days on the left coast. While there were many mindful moments-from fruitful Napa feasts to Raider Nation tailgates-the family and friendship vibes were by far the most memorable. Thanks Jeff-you are, quite simply, the American Dream.

  • Bounce to the ounce?

  • Next Wednesday, December 7th, the Ruby Peck Foundation, in conjunction with Minyanville, will host the all-star guitar auction. It's been a long time coming, we know, but we're hopeful that ye faithful will help us make this philanthropic gesture one for the ages.

  • Can silver get through (multi-year highs at) $8.50ish without a respite?

  • Is it me or does the incessant bovine bravado seem out of synch with the Dow Jones YTD performance (+1%)?

  • Still no food or energy?

  • "Do dividends still matter? Much has been said about the $600 billion residing on the balance sheets of corporate balance sheets and the resultant buybacks and 'massive' dividend increases. Yet after the recent rally in stocks the dividend yield of the SPX stands at a measly 1.76%. However, since 1968, whenever T-bill yields have been more than 2.12 times SPX yields, stocks have generally fallen. The one time this did not hold true was in the bubble years of 1998-2000 when the ratio actually reached 5.21. So either we are about to enter another bubble phase, which is hard to imagine with record low equity mutual fund cash levels (as a percentage of assets), corporations need to pony up some cash or the Fed needs to lower rates. Since I find most of the preceding thoughts highly unlikely, don't be surprised after the recent rally in stocks and the recent rally in short-term yields to allow for further major upside in stocks." -- Bennet Sedacca on today's Buzz.

  • Keep an eye on the XAU as it tries to put (multi-year high) 120 underfoot.

  • Crude is getting' tanked (-3%) and pulling the energy patch lower in synch.

  • I am very thankful.

  • The article "Disbelief" by Brian Reynolds was incorrectly titled "Year-End Disbelief" when first published on Nov. 22, 2005.

    The previous title may have implied that Brian thought that most people don't believe in a year-end rally, when, in reality, he was writing that most people don't believe that the bull market has years to go. We apologize for any confusion this may have caused.

  • Wasn't me!

  • "The breakout from the four month range, in which the S&P was between 1177 and 1245, implies upside to the 1313 area. The first support level, on a pullback, would be at the 1245 level. As for the banks, a breakout from a near two year base says, at the very least, that there's not a lot of risk in the market here. As regular readers of our work will remember, the BKX/NYSE Financials are the most important sector in the marketplace." -- Uber-Minyan John Roque of Natexis Bleichroeder

  • My type of chick.

  • "On the BJ Wholesale (BJ) conference call, management made a very interesting comment that may explain the Black Friday rush to buy the latest must-haves: 'There are a lot of earlier promotions and everybody is trying to pull in these sales before the first heating bill arrives in consumers' mailboxes.' Need I say more?" -- Vitaliy Katsenelson on today's Buzz.

  • Shakin' off the Red Eye Mondays, the tale of the tape seems to be restful. Market internals are 2:1 negative, the homies, nets and brokers (former leaders) are sluggish and the semis remain ensconced below resistance (SOX 485). The real test for the year-end tape will begin when the first (second) dip fails to hold.

  • Raider Nation. Even (especially) in defeat.

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