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Random Thoughts

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...you can play them seven ways till Sunday as long as you define your risk.

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  • A new week is upon us and it's coming down hard in the City of Critters! While Daisy spent the weekend shopping and Hoofy kicked back reading about the buying "frenzy" in the weekend press, Boo was fashioning his Scrooge outfit for a sneaky Monday drubbing.

  • I offered last Tuesday that my "best guess" was a test of S&P 1390 and we're there now. That's the right shoulder of the reverse dandruff and, as past resistance is future support, we should expect the Matador Crowd to make a stand in here.

  • Can they hold? I'm not sure--the two main tells we've been watching are breadth, which is 3:1 negative, and the financials, which are taking it on the chinny chin chin. Further to that, it's virtually impossible NOT to be conditioned to expect a bounce (particularly at support). So, with everyone thinking bounce...

  • "Private equity investors have been kicking the tires of some big companies in the technology sector lately, including Dell, EMC, and perhaps even Yahoo, according to a source familiar with the situation. " From the Red Herring.

  • Either way, we're at a decent spot from a risk definition standpoint so we've got that going for us.

  • I stopped by the Apple store during a run (OK, a jog) to Central Park on Saturday and I couldn't even fit in the door. And yes, it was a function of the crowd--not the turkey.

  • Boo's view on the Greenback. The "other side" of that trade, natch, is asset class deflation coupled with a "run" in the dollar (as the masses begin to repay dollar denominated debt).

  • Lest you were sleeping on Friday, Professor Zucchi offered some salient thoughts on the dollar as well.

  • "The QQQQ's have 10 consecutive closes above the open price. This has happened just once before: Oct. 16, 2006. The streak ended the next day with a gap lower that never reached positive territory and continued lower throughout the day." Professor Roney on today's Buzz.

  • Keep an eye on those pesky piggies as the BKX is sitting on the uptrend line from the July low.

  • Professor Rod "don't call me Larry!" David makes an interesting point on the dollar being the "culprit" for equity price action. I have a slightly different bent--while both the dollar and equities can fall (in synch), I believe that a weak dollar is the only way that equities could rally.

  • A sharp seer "sees" a decline into the second week of December followed by the fabled Santa Claus rally. I agree that we're not gonna trade "up, up and away" and sense that IF the portly fella is gonna appear, there needs to be some shake out first. The sooner we get it, the better the odds that he'll fit in the chimney.

  • December, already? 2007, already? Man, blink and ya missed it!

  • If you thought there was performance anxiety in November, just wait until the calendar page flips on Friday. Serendipity, as some of the sharpest thinkers gather to noodle? Perhaps. I know that I'll be on the edge of my seat looking for fresh seeds of secular thoughts.

  • In the meantime, you can play them seven ways till Sunday as long as you define your risk. That means rolling stops, when applicable, and making sure that discipline trumps conviction.

  • Think positive, Minyans, it all begins within.


R.P.

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