Smiles and Stuffing
I didn't know we had pigs in Minyanville!
We'd have more luck playing pick-up sticks with our butt-cheeks than we will getting a flight out of here before daybreak.
--Del Griffith, Planes, Trains & Automobiles
You're going the wrong way! How does he know where we're going? The critters are wondering the same thing after the pop, drop and prop has brought us back to either side of the flat line. It's getting awfully thin as traders slip out the back door and the talk on the Street is about Freaky Friday. You remember what happened on July 5th half day? Zoom daddy...and that anticipation is giving a bid to the tape.
I just opined to Scotto and Succo that I thought the "perfect" bear scenario would be a strong rally into the weekend and a gap opening on Monday (providing the optimal fade). The next thing out of my mouth was "that's probably too cute" and it very well might be. Trading the tape is hard enough without the added crosscurrents of whisper thin conditions and a looming month end. For me, that means doing a little less, getting a bit flatter and staying uber-tight when I'm not sure.
The two biggest flies in today's tape are the dollar squalor and bold gold. Professor Reynolds and I have debated the relevance of these macro inputs and he maintains that any 'issues' would emerge in the corporate bond market (and they haven't yet). It's a valid input (from a pretty sharp guy) and it's surely something to factor into the trading mix. I'm still of the belief that we've yet to correct (there's zero fear)--and it's gonna happen sooner (next week?) rather than later--but you always want to see both sides of every trade and now you have.
Europe is still down marginally, the sectors indices are meandering (energy is starting to perk up), breadth is flat as a pancake and I, myself, have started noticing the door a bit more. For the record, I wussed out on the sloppy joe but Fokker, true to form, took the idea and ran, er, ate. He's currently sitting at his desk with an "I can't believe I ate the whole thing" look on his face. Better him than me!
Tick tock baby...tick tock.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at email@example.com.
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