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Buzz & Banter


Wanted to give the readership a quick update about where we are in the ongoing evolution of our Fun With Numbers posts. Based on the same studies we have been watching for the last month or so (Fibonacci, Demark, and Elliott), we are at an important juncture with respect to the near term outlook. One of the two primary possibilities that exist should be clarified sometime in the next several sessions. And which one it is will depend on how the market "acts" at some key price levels.

In sum, one could conclude that (1) the recent move up from the 1031 SPX lows (1357 NDX) is complete and we fall hard from here piercing through important support levels between 1040 and 1045 SPX (1385 and 1395 NDX). If those levels don't hold any pullback, the studies conclusions remain the same as before: a swift decline to the 960 SPX area and 1200 NDX area.

The other (more short term bullish) conclusion that can be reached is that the current decline stops at or above the support levels cited above (again 1040 to 1045 SPX and 1385 to 1395 NDX) and then thrusts one more time to register slight new highs above 1063 SPX and 1450 NDX before falling away from those levels toward our lower targets.

As always, there are other scenarios that are potentially more bullish than either of the two above but, at least according to my interpretation of these indicators, they remain small probabilities relative to the two situations above. So pay close attention to our cited levels, as they should help us understand where we are on the battlefield. Of course, as always, this is offered merely as grist for conversation and not as advice in any way. To each Minyan his own conclusions.
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