The Cold Hearted Minx
The cold remains of what began with a passionate start
And they many not want it to end
But it will, it's just a matter of when
They say it's better to have loved and lost than to never have loved at all. I suppose that's true, but I hope you would have learned something from the relationship in the process! The love affair with the market has had its issues over the past few years (ya think?) and many traders have been jilted in the process. Still, hopeless romantics remain and they'd like to believe that a Minx can change her stripes. Besides, nobody likes to be alone for the holidays!
I've been admittedly...suspect...of this rally for a while and that fact is not lost on the critters. The truth is I've never been very good at buying (or selling) just because everyone else is doing it. That financial peer pressure has cost a lot of people a lot of money yet they continue to run with the herd. The trick, for me, is to balance the potential psychology shift of the masses with the reality of my beliefs. From a big picture perspective, THE bottom will likely occur when apathy sets in and the pundits stop trying to call it. On a trading basis, timing remains the key to profitability and a necessary element of the process.
With that said, holiday thinned sessions are dicey to game as a few agendas can cause a large move. We will get some direction today when Beeks announces the Gross Domestic Product (exp. 3.8%, deflator 1.1%) at 8:30 and the New Home Sales (exp. 990k) and Consumer Confidence (exp. 85) at 10:00am but after that, the accounts with the deepest pockets win. Next week, however, it's put up for shush up time for the Minx as the entire world will discuss the state of business. As a function of this, it's my humble opinion that buying volatility will be rewarded despite what is, for all intensive purposes, a four day weekend.
Our technical levels remain largely unchanged as S&P 925ish and NDX 1070ish are support while S&P 965 (Auggie high) and NDX 1127 (200-day moving average and, coincidently, the closing low in September 2001) will act as resistance. In our current news vacuum, our primary tells will once again be the semis (Nazz) and the financials (S&P). Peripheral tells will include Microsoft and Cisco (horsies), General Electric and the internals.
As you know, today will be my last column of the week as I'm scadattling to Rubyville tomorrow for some down time with the clan. On Monday, the interim site will be taken down as the critters prepare for Tuesday's Grand Opening. I'm looking forward to taking a respite from the action-too much focus sometimes blurs your vision and I'm admittedly fried-but I'm equally jazzed about the pending launch. I've been walking through the main site lately and I've gotta tell you-it's insane! Helluva job, Case!
Good luck today.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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