It sure is thin out there!
"The point is, how do you know the Guarantee Fairy isn't a crazy glue sniffer? "Building model airplanes" says the little fairy, but we're not buying it. Next thing you know, there's money missing off the dresser and your daughter's knocked up, I seen it a hundred times."
The afternoon drift continues to sift as Hoofy postures for the expected lift. Indeed, most traders I speak to are already resigned to the fact that the Minx is going to break out. The question on their lips is: How does Fokker fit into that leather body suit of his? Oops--wrong question. What they're really talking about is magnitude. We've seen the correction, they opine, now comes the upside reflection. Talk about counting chickens before they hatch--the hen isn't even pregnant yet!
I suppose further lift would technically qualify as the Razor portion of the Burn. We had a November corrective process and, as December looms on Monday, the tone of the tape has seemingly turned. What I've been debating in that crowded keppe of mine is whether we've experienced sufficient fear. After all, the dip shtick is still thick and the bull camp got crowded quick. I wanna balance the inevitable spill with the knowledge that perception is reality and it'll work until it doesn't.
Do we have to breakout before we breakdown? Perhaps--the Minx sure acts like she wants to give it a go. The breadth is minty fresh and the sell-side seems disinterested. Factor in a thin tape and the potential for month end mark-ups and the next few sessions are dicey. I guess the takeaway, in a nutshell, is that I'm allowing for higher levels in the near-term but I don't think the worst is behind us. As such, I'm trading around my positions and keeping some downside paper on. Of course, that's simply one trader's humble opinion.
One step at a time, Minyans, and shockingly enough, my day just got a bit busy. Keep an eye on the brokers as the only potential fly I can see. Bear Stearns (BSC:NYSE) is down two and a laugh and it's dragging a few of it's brethren with it. Storage, hardware, software and the biotechs are also giving a bit back but it's not an issue (yet).
Fare ye well and good luck into the close.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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