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business newsWall of Worry Spikes as Economic Leadership Officially Flatlines
By
Lloyd Khaner
Nov 23, 2011 11:55 am
Failure was an option after all as the US super committee announces defeat and investors begin to panic.
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Failure was an option after all as the US "super committee" whiffs at a slow pitch right over the plate -- one that they had three months to swing at.
Europe is still waiting on the ECB to deliver a Wall of Money, the Middle East is heating up again, and China is celebrating the rapid demise of their housing market.
Then came news of today's "disasterous" German bond auction.
I can't imagine how the Dow Jones Index (DJI) will look next year at this time, or next week for that matter, but for now, Happy Thanksgiving -- and my advice is to fight for that wish bone!
The Wall of Worry has risen to 30 blocks this week, meaning fear is running high and is priced into the markets. For commentary on each of the issues facing investors, click on the graphic below or scroll down for a text-only version of this column and an explanation of how it works.
Lloyd's Wall of Worry
CONGRESSIONAL SUPERCOMMITTEE: Go Home.
GERMANY: Bund sale bombs. Melt down reaching the core.
SPAIN: ¡Bienvenido to the latest Government of the week!
CREDIT MARKETS: Either sleeping with one eye open or slipping into a coma in Euroland.
HOLIDAY SALES: Black Friday now starting on Thursday, angering most all of those working and shopping on Wednesday, Tuesday, Monday, Sunday, and Saturday U.S. nationwide.
FRANCE: Just wait, even L’Hexagone will get a swing at the dance of the over-levered sovereigns. Perhaps tout de suite!
EUROPEAN ECONOMY: No one is expecting much from it. And that’s the optimistic viewpoint.
QE: The stimulus junkies of the world -- basically and honestly all of us -- are scrounging around for that next fix.
US ECONOMY: B-movie good. You wouldn’t admit to your friends that you saw it, but it's better than nothing.
UNEMPLOYMENT: Lousy looking and gonna be even lousier feeling if unemployment benefits aren’t extended.
INVESTOR SENTIMENT: Maybe it would help if we grew beards and wore inside-out baseball hats with the brim up.
HOUSING CRISIS: We have clearly fallen into the rabbit hole. And as Alice would say, “Well, after this I should think nothing of falling down stairs.”
INFLATION: Have you tried to check a bag on an airplane lately. Frig!
CRISIS OF CONFIDENCE: Johnny A., my favorite NYC Cabbie, says it true, “As far as our leaders go, man, I don’t even think they’re trying.”
THE EUROPEAN UNION: Technocrats to the rescue!
SOVEREIGN DEBT: Someone call a D.O., 1970s suburbanese for “Do Over,” and lets start from 0-0 again.
BOND VIGILANTES: Left to their own devices they’d be jacking interest rates into the double digits. Hence the reason why governments worldwide are not leaving them to their own devices.
CREDIT RATINGS AGENCIES: Get the feeling that we need Credit Rating Agencies for our Credit Rating Agencies?
GREECE: On the back burner for now, but still burning nonetheless.
ITALY: Okay Mr. “Monti,” Let’s Make A Deal!
ECONOMIC LEADERSHIP: Flatlining--------------------
BANKS: Not lending, not hiring, and not winning any popularity contests.
VOLATILITY: Hello, Commodity Markets!
MIDDLE EAST: This cradle of civilization is getting rocked once again.
HIGH FREQUENCY TRADING:
Lloyd: This volatility doesn’t seem to faze you HAL.
HAL: Breathe it like oxygen my brother from another mother.
Lloyd: Risk on, risk off.
HAL: Pure butter baby.
Lloyd: Chasing out everyone but the other Bots from the markets.
HAL: Sup’ Boy.
Lloyd: Leaving only world domination as the final frontier.
HAL: Fist pump me LL-Human!
CHINA: Throwing hell and high water at their housing market to prevent it from rebounding. They call it “inflation fighting” in China while the rest of the world uses the term “tyranny.”
CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS: Caution: Casino may use its full discretion as to who, how much and when it will pay winning ticket holders.
FINANCIAL FIRM FAILURES: Dangerous times when people lose confidence in the confidence game players.
OCCUPY: Global, focused, loaded, patient, and not going away any time soon.
CORRELATION: “And we’ll all go down together…”
What Is Lloyd's Wall of Worry?
by Lloyd Khaner
Welcome to my at-a-glance guide to the issues facing investors this week -- a unique tool for traders and money managers.
Typically the term "wall of worry,” refers to the entire body of concerns influencing stock market action. When the wall is high, meaning the market is nervous, stocks tend to get cheaper.
This wall of worry is even more specific. Every week I list the exact concerns in the marketplace and use the list to help me make buying and selling decisions. As I like to say, "Buy fear, sell cheer."
In other words, once the the wall rises above 15 blocks, start looking for deals. If the worry count sinks below 10, consider selling; prices have likely peaked.
Europe is still waiting on the ECB to deliver a Wall of Money, the Middle East is heating up again, and China is celebrating the rapid demise of their housing market.
Then came news of today's "disasterous" German bond auction.
I can't imagine how the Dow Jones Index (DJI) will look next year at this time, or next week for that matter, but for now, Happy Thanksgiving -- and my advice is to fight for that wish bone!
The Wall of Worry has risen to 30 blocks this week, meaning fear is running high and is priced into the markets. For commentary on each of the issues facing investors, click on the graphic below or scroll down for a text-only version of this column and an explanation of how it works.
Lloyd's Wall of Worry
CONGRESSIONAL SUPERCOMMITTEE: Go Home.
GERMANY: Bund sale bombs. Melt down reaching the core.
SPAIN: ¡Bienvenido to the latest Government of the week!
CREDIT MARKETS: Either sleeping with one eye open or slipping into a coma in Euroland.
HOLIDAY SALES: Black Friday now starting on Thursday, angering most all of those working and shopping on Wednesday, Tuesday, Monday, Sunday, and Saturday U.S. nationwide.
FRANCE: Just wait, even L’Hexagone will get a swing at the dance of the over-levered sovereigns. Perhaps tout de suite!
EUROPEAN ECONOMY: No one is expecting much from it. And that’s the optimistic viewpoint.
QE: The stimulus junkies of the world -- basically and honestly all of us -- are scrounging around for that next fix.
US ECONOMY: B-movie good. You wouldn’t admit to your friends that you saw it, but it's better than nothing.
UNEMPLOYMENT: Lousy looking and gonna be even lousier feeling if unemployment benefits aren’t extended.
INVESTOR SENTIMENT: Maybe it would help if we grew beards and wore inside-out baseball hats with the brim up.
HOUSING CRISIS: We have clearly fallen into the rabbit hole. And as Alice would say, “Well, after this I should think nothing of falling down stairs.”
INFLATION: Have you tried to check a bag on an airplane lately. Frig!
CRISIS OF CONFIDENCE: Johnny A., my favorite NYC Cabbie, says it true, “As far as our leaders go, man, I don’t even think they’re trying.”
THE EUROPEAN UNION: Technocrats to the rescue!
SOVEREIGN DEBT: Someone call a D.O., 1970s suburbanese for “Do Over,” and lets start from 0-0 again.
BOND VIGILANTES: Left to their own devices they’d be jacking interest rates into the double digits. Hence the reason why governments worldwide are not leaving them to their own devices.
CREDIT RATINGS AGENCIES: Get the feeling that we need Credit Rating Agencies for our Credit Rating Agencies?
GREECE: On the back burner for now, but still burning nonetheless.
ITALY: Okay Mr. “Monti,” Let’s Make A Deal!
ECONOMIC LEADERSHIP: Flatlining--------------------
BANKS: Not lending, not hiring, and not winning any popularity contests.
VOLATILITY: Hello, Commodity Markets!
MIDDLE EAST: This cradle of civilization is getting rocked once again.
HIGH FREQUENCY TRADING:
Lloyd: This volatility doesn’t seem to faze you HAL.
HAL: Breathe it like oxygen my brother from another mother.
Lloyd: Risk on, risk off.
HAL: Pure butter baby.
Lloyd: Chasing out everyone but the other Bots from the markets.
HAL: Sup’ Boy.
Lloyd: Leaving only world domination as the final frontier.
HAL: Fist pump me LL-Human!
CHINA: Throwing hell and high water at their housing market to prevent it from rebounding. They call it “inflation fighting” in China while the rest of the world uses the term “tyranny.”
CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS: Caution: Casino may use its full discretion as to who, how much and when it will pay winning ticket holders.
FINANCIAL FIRM FAILURES: Dangerous times when people lose confidence in the confidence game players.
OCCUPY: Global, focused, loaded, patient, and not going away any time soon.
CORRELATION: “And we’ll all go down together…”
What Is Lloyd's Wall of Worry?
by Lloyd Khaner
Welcome to my at-a-glance guide to the issues facing investors this week -- a unique tool for traders and money managers.
Typically the term "wall of worry,” refers to the entire body of concerns influencing stock market action. When the wall is high, meaning the market is nervous, stocks tend to get cheaper.
This wall of worry is even more specific. Every week I list the exact concerns in the marketplace and use the list to help me make buying and selling decisions. As I like to say, "Buy fear, sell cheer."
In other words, once the the wall rises above 15 blocks, start looking for deals. If the worry count sinks below 10, consider selling; prices have likely peaked.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
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