By Todd Harrison Nov 23, 2004 12:08 pm
These trendlines better hold!
- I slipped both legs back into the bear costume (50% conviction on the short side) this morning on the Buzz (10:30 am). Why? 1) Crude continues to race higher (+2.7%). 2) While the pennant was marginally breached to the upside, lower highs are still in play. 3) The recent "top" offers defined risk. 4) Some trading contacts have offered that there is little "conventional" demand today and hedgies are pushing around the tape. 5) Yesterday's rally felt lethargic to me. 6) We're still extended (albeit far from uber-extended) and psychology is still relatively giddy. 7) I'm a masochist. Not advice, of course--just sharing my process.
- Buzzers will likely note the redundancy of some content in News & Views after seeing it on the Buzz. We do this as a courtesy to the Minyans who choose not to access the (incredibly cool real-time financial blog that is) Buzz & Banter.
- I'm as healthy as a horse!
- He's a pinball wizard...
- A more afraid Raid!
- "Things may come to those who wait, but only the things left by those who hustle" - Abraham Lincoln
- The top-five Orange will soon get their point guard back. Noice!
- "No wait!," said the sheep to his fellow flock, "This time will be different!"
- Trump denied the bankruptcy was a setback. "I don't think it's a failure, it's a success," he said in the interview. "In this case, it was just something that worked better than other alternatives. It's really just a technical thing, but it came together." In related news, Toddo denied that gaining weight was a problem. "I don't think it's an issue, I didn't want to see my shoes anyway," he said in an interview,"In this case, it was just something that happened after I gave up alternative carbs. It's really just a chocolate thing, but it tasted good."
- If I get one more TravelZoo (TZOO:NASD) pop-up, I will unleash MY critters and make them sorry they ever stepped foot on our turf!
- I'm carefully watching the internals for downside confirmation. As it stands, the bears winning the battle 9:5 on the Nazz and 3:2 on the big board.
- The scary thing is that I don't even remember inhaling the chicken BLT wrap that I had for lunch (today).
- Fear factor? The volatility indices (VXO, VXN, QQV) are flat.
- These critters are allowed honorary citizenship in Minyanville.
- I had drinks with Michael Strahan Friday night. Talk about a gentle giant!
- The S&P and NDX are both sitting on the uptrend lines from late October.
- Speaking of a travel zoo!
- "The NYSE Bullish Percent has moved higher for 21 consecutive days and has elevated to a risk level of 73% (highest since January). So far today it is positive despite the slippage in the major indices, but it's still early. This is the longest streak since 26 consecutive daily rises between 4/11/03 and 5/19/03, for what that's worth. Meanwhile, I consider Biotech to be a pretty good canary in the coalmine for NDX. The failure of both the NBI and BTK to make new yearly highs along with NDX I interpret as a bearish tell. The NDX will give a sell signal at 1540, if and when, my friend, if and when." --Pepe Depew.
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