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Random Thoughts


I, for one, will be psyched when this mercury retrograde has passed!

  • We're toying with the idea of holding a Minyan tailgate before the Jets-Raiders December 11th game at the Meadowlands. If Minyans are interested, please let us know. Silver and Black face paint will be optional.

  • They call him Fleck!

  • Hint: the loud noise coming down the tracks is a sign that you should step back on the platform!

  • Bloomberg is reporting that Russian President Vladimir Putin, speaking at a gold conference in the country's far eastern city of Magadan, opined that his country should raise the proportion of gold in its reserves of gold and foreign currencies. This story has been floating around, we know, but I believe that this is the first time that Vlad himself is Putin on da Ritz.

  • Meanwhile, at the Roach Motel...

  • "Gold may loose some luster over coming weeks. At this point everyone has seen the rally to new highs and talk is of Gold moving over $500/oz. The reasons for the sharp run higher in Gold range from Russian Central Bank buying to a sign of pending inflationary pressures that will cause the Fed to raise rates much further than people expect. The rally has become extreme, whatever the reason for it. We found that since 2001, anytime (other than the buildup to the Iraq Invasion) the 10-day Rate of Change (ROC) indicator reached an extreme level- we used 6 as the measure - it was followed by an average drop of 6.95% over 32 days. This happened on 11/18/05, and similar to our energy pullback call, our argument isn't the trend or fundamentals are poor --- quite the contrary --- our argument is that buying on spikes historically hasn't been the right move, especially when the upside appears so clear." -- Snoop Tony Dwyer of FTN Midwest Research.

  • The Yankee ace prepares for the '06 season.

  • Keep an eye on SOX 485 as the latest level du jour (resistance below, acne above).

  • "This week has a big up bias, of course, which we talked a bit about last week. But now have had four weeks without a .5% drawdown in the Dow! This week would make five, and five seems likely after yesterday gains. We have only seen four weeks without a .5% drawdown seven times before: Nov. 1992, Aug. 1993, Jan. 1994, Dec. 1995, Dec. 1996, July 1998, and Dec. 2003. Occurrences of five weeks without a .5% drawdown only happened four times before, and the longest streak is six (at the end of 2003 and beginning of 2004)." -- Jason Roney on today's Buzz.

  • S&P 1250. Metaphorically speaking, of course.

  • I asked Boo to drop everything and read the morning missive from the Iron Horse. We strive to see both sides of every trade and this is required reading in Red Dye.

  • Why all the tension mentions of late? Because emotion is the enemy when trading and we must be conscious of the psychological landscape.

  • I opined on the morning Buzz that Hoofy would have an upside probe in him but Boo would likely stand his ground. This latest lift has filled the opening (downside) gap while the internals have failed to uptick in kind. With SOX 485 directly above, Boo has a very thin margin of error to play with here. He still has a shot at furthering the legacy of Turnaround Tuesday but the pressure is mounting for him to step up or step aside.

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