Simon & Booster
Fare ye well into the bell!
I am just a poor bear
Though my story's seldom told
I have squandered my resistance
For a pocketful of mumbles such are promises
The Monday fray is a low volume sway as traders trade and the critters play. If Friday's action was all about the dollar, crude, fixed income and lack of leadership, today's session has been anything but. The macro variables have been stale, equities have been resilient and the hoops oops in the motor city has dominated the airwaves. Artest...protest... retest... is it any wonder that we're all losing our mind?
I arrived in the 'Ville this morning with half a bear costume on and tight stops set. It didn't take long (or much) for me to metaphorically undress although I'll admit that I already miss that fur. Technical analysis is like contemporary art--each observer has a unique perspective and there are always hidden messages nestled in landscape. I chose to "roll my stops" to the closest applicable level although I could easily have chosen the S&P mini-downtrend line (still in place) or the recent highs (where the position was initiated). To each their own, I suppose, and my intent is to share the process rather than the points.
With that said, the Minx is far from out of the woods. Most of my intermediate-term stochastics are still in the red zone and the combination of lofty sentiment and complacent vols screams of vulnerability. As this is a shortened holiday week, the lack of volume (and skeletal staffs) could exacerbate price action as we edge towards the turkey. While it's hard to "game" how that will manifest, we can certainly incorporate it into our stylistic approach.
The benefit of the lower highs is that we now have a technical framework with which to operate (as opposed to the parabolic frolic we've been witnessing). Levels of note include BKX 100 and 101.80, NDX 1580ish (triple top), S&P 1188 (recent high) and Google (GOOG:NASD) $150-165 (the gap band). I'm also keeping a close eye on Citigroup (C:NYSE) as inklings of dandruff seem to be sprouting from Sandy's scalp. The trading radar is fairly quiet although Beeks will swing by the Heritage Club on Wednesday before dining with the Dukes.
I'm gonna hop back to the Buzz and ride out this session in style. I sincerely hope you're all having a fine day and that you have an even better night. Tis' the season to give thanks--easier said than done, I know, but worth remembering when possible. There are a lot of folks who would gladly trade their problems for yours so keep it real and maintain perspective. Tomorrow, as they say, is promised to nobody.
Have a peaceful night.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at email@example.com.
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