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Random Thoughts


Trade--don't force!


  • This is how I felt in 2003!

  • "Rising interest rates have been advertised for so long and in so many places that anyone who has not appropriately hedged this position by now obviously is desirous of losing money." - Alan Greenspan, European Banking Congress 2004, November 19

  • "This week's ABS (asset-backed security) issuance jumped to about $23 billion (from JP Morgan). Total year-to-date issuance of $570 billion is 38% ahead of comparable 2003. This year's home equity ABS issuance of $366 billion is running 84% ahead of last year's record pace." - Doug Noland, Credit Bubble Bulletin

  • China Rider!

  • According to the New York Times, the typical household has eight credit cards with average accumulated debt of $7,500.

  • I edged one leg out of my metaphorical bear costume this morning (leaves a leg (25% conviction). Why? Mixed tells and the desire to trade "in between" as a function of discipline. I've left my "mental stops" above and will roll them down (with the tape) should the opportunity present itself.

  • NYSE breadth remains balanced.

  • The Roanoke Times recently carried the story of Melissa Williamson, 35 - and her complaint (and possible lawsuit) about the street construction noise outside her home. She expressed great concern that the ruckus, especially the jackhammers, would have a harmful effect on her unborn child -- then two months from term. The Times story resulted in many letters to the editor from alert readers who noticed that the oh-so-concerned-about-her-baby's-well-being Williamson was shown in a photo -- , looking worried about the construction but puffing away on a cigarette. (Roanoke Times)

  • Das Boot!

  • "When measured in dollars, the DJIA has risen 4.4% since year-end 2001. When measured in euros, however, the DJIA is down 30%. Foreigners are financing more than 5% of our annual deficits at a cost of $1.8 billion per day. Should they tire of doing so, that burden will fall back on Americans and we will be forced to either 1) finance it ourselves, 2) reduce consumption, or 3) create more inflation. I doubt any of these alternatives will be secularly bullish for U.S financial markets." -Uber-Minyan Jeff Saut of Raymond James

  • Yuan may have to take yoga if he wants to be more flexible.

  • The Dollar index is flirting with--but holding above--recent lows.

  • Boo has a credible alibi and was nowhere near Alabama at the time.

  • A man named Ian Fleming (no kidding) was arrested in New York City after he attempted to deposit bogus, computer-generated checks into his account at Commerce Bank in the amounts of $5 billion and $6 billion. Police said that the week before, Fleming had done a trial run by successfully depositing bogus checks for $350 and $1,300 and thus probably felt he was ready to move on up. (New York Post)

  • The first signs of distribution emerged last week since the peak in oil prices back in late October. Two outright days of distribution on the Nasdaq, and the worst day on the SPX in 20-days confirmed our concerns regarding the overbought condition, flattening momentum and exuberance that had germinated over the last several weeks. The fact that semi-conductor breakouts proliferated last week doesn't help matters, for the names now rallying look like the benefactors of the late-comer making an appearance and attempting to find unexploited "juice". -Lehman chartist Jeff DeGraaf.

  • Writing a daily column sometimes requires "putting on a brave face" when going through a personal situation. Such is life-- we can't map out our path, we can only navigate it to the best of our ability.

  • Nicolette Owens?

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