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Random Thoughts


Trade--don't force!


  • This is how I felt in 2003!

  • "Rising interest rates have been advertised for so long and in so many places that anyone who has not appropriately hedged this position by now obviously is desirous of losing money." - Alan Greenspan, European Banking Congress 2004, November 19

  • "This week's ABS (asset-backed security) issuance jumped to about $23 billion (from JP Morgan). Total year-to-date issuance of $570 billion is 38% ahead of comparable 2003. This year's home equity ABS issuance of $366 billion is running 84% ahead of last year's record pace." - Doug Noland, Credit Bubble Bulletin

  • China Rider!

  • According to the New York Times, the typical household has eight credit cards with average accumulated debt of $7,500.

  • I edged one leg out of my metaphorical bear costume this morning (leaves a leg (25% conviction). Why? Mixed tells and the desire to trade "in between" as a function of discipline. I've left my "mental stops" above and will roll them down (with the tape) should the opportunity present itself.

  • NYSE breadth remains balanced.

  • The Roanoke Times recently carried the story of Melissa Williamson, 35 - and her complaint (and possible lawsuit) about the street construction noise outside her home. She expressed great concern that the ruckus, especially the jackhammers, would have a harmful effect on her unborn child -- then two months from term. The Times story resulted in many letters to the editor from alert readers who noticed that the oh-so-concerned-about-her-baby's-well-being Williamson was shown in a photo -- , looking worried about the construction but puffing away on a cigarette. (Roanoke Times)

  • Das Boot!

  • "When measured in dollars, the DJIA has risen 4.4% since year-end 2001. When measured in euros, however, the DJIA is down 30%. Foreigners are financing more than 5% of our annual deficits at a cost of $1.8 billion per day. Should they tire of doing so, that burden will fall back on Americans and we will be forced to either 1) finance it ourselves, 2) reduce consumption, or 3) create more inflation. I doubt any of these alternatives will be secularly bullish for U.S financial markets." -Uber-Minyan Jeff Saut of Raymond James

  • Yuan may have to take yoga if he wants to be more flexible.

  • The Dollar index is flirting with--but holding above--recent lows.

  • Boo has a credible alibi and was nowhere near Alabama at the time.

  • A man named Ian Fleming (no kidding) was arrested in New York City after he attempted to deposit bogus, computer-generated checks into his account at Commerce Bank in the amounts of $5 billion and $6 billion. Police said that the week before, Fleming had done a trial run by successfully depositing bogus checks for $350 and $1,300 and thus probably felt he was ready to move on up. (New York Post)

  • The first signs of distribution emerged last week since the peak in oil prices back in late October. Two outright days of distribution on the Nasdaq, and the worst day on the SPX in 20-days confirmed our concerns regarding the overbought condition, flattening momentum and exuberance that had germinated over the last several weeks. The fact that semi-conductor breakouts proliferated last week doesn't help matters, for the names now rallying look like the benefactors of the late-comer making an appearance and attempting to find unexploited "juice". -Lehman chartist Jeff DeGraaf.

  • Writing a daily column sometimes requires "putting on a brave face" when going through a personal situation. Such is life-- we can't map out our path, we can only navigate it to the best of our ability.

  • Nicolette Owens?

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No positions in stocks mentioned.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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