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Donke Shoen


"I haven't taken a beating like this since I put a banana down my pants and turned a monkey loose."

Clark Wilhelm Griswold, Jr.
Vegas Vacation

Alright, I'm half joking but that's one of my all-time favorite movie lines and I figured if you can't laugh, what's it all about? I've leaned a long time ago not to let the good times get you too high and not to beat yourself up too much when you're wrong (or early). That may sound like rationalization but it's not-it's the type of mindset you need if you're going to last in this business. The traders who've become emotionally involved with their positions have already left the building, Elvis.

The irony of Boo's current situation is that the Menagerie scripted this scenario a month ago: a pullback from the earlier high (that planted the seeds of hope in the bears and doubt in the bulls), a sharp rip that sucks everybody in (sound familiar?) and a hard melt into year end (stay tuned). In a perfect world, Boo would have caught the pullback (he did), handed the torch to Hoofs for the upside schnitzel (dropped that one) only to take it back for his sleigh ride south. Hey...if the world were perfect, I'd have more hair, less stress and a mouthful of chocolate!

In all seriousness, trading is about assigning probability to outcomes and having your risk profile reflect that view. While each day continues to be a learning experience, I have few regrets other than my typical shortage of patience. Still, my bearish posture (75% conviction) is consistent with my thought process and there will be no looking back-that's wasted energy. If we get another hard push higher (which would happen to coincide with the last week of November/first week of December time frame we've discussed), I will not hesitate to fully zip up and dance in my fur. In fact, a part of me is perversely looking forward to it!

Not much else to say-good day for the bulls as the tape broke out on good volume and (what's left of) the bears will go home licking their wounds. For my part, I'm going to Lou the Shoe's holiday gig to spend some quality time with the boys. When it's all said and done, money comes and goes. Good friends...they last a lifetime.

Have a peaceful night.
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