Clark Wilhelm Griswold, Jr.
Alright, I'm half joking but that's one of my all-time favorite movie lines and I figured if you can't laugh, what's it all about? I've leaned a long time ago not to let the good times get you too high and not to beat yourself up too much when you're wrong (or early). That may sound like rationalization but it's not-it's the type of mindset you need if you're going to last in this business. The traders who've become emotionally involved with their positions have already left the building, Elvis.
The irony of Boo's current situation is that the Menagerie scripted this scenario a month ago: a pullback from the earlier high (that planted the seeds of hope in the bears and doubt in the bulls), a sharp rip that sucks everybody in (sound familiar?) and a hard melt into year end (stay tuned). In a perfect world, Boo would have caught the pullback (he did), handed the torch to Hoofs for the upside schnitzel (dropped that one) only to take it back for his sleigh ride south. Hey...if the world were perfect, I'd have more hair, less stress and a mouthful of chocolate!
In all seriousness, trading is about assigning probability to outcomes and having your risk profile reflect that view. While each day continues to be a learning experience, I have few regrets other than my typical shortage of patience. Still, my bearish posture (75% conviction) is consistent with my thought process and there will be no looking back-that's wasted energy. If we get another hard push higher (which would happen to coincide with the last week of November/first week of December time frame we've discussed), I will not hesitate to fully zip up and dance in my fur. In fact, a part of me is perversely looking forward to it!
Not much else to say-good day for the bulls as the tape broke out on good volume and (what's left of) the bears will go home licking their wounds. For my part, I'm going to Lou the Shoe's holiday gig to spend some quality time with the boys. When it's all said and done, money comes and goes. Good friends...they last a lifetime.
Have a peaceful night.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.
Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Daily Recap Newsletter