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Random Thoughts

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What if, at the end of the day, it really does come down to the elasticity of debt?

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  • Anyone who traded Phelps Dodge (+$27) as a proxy for the copper breakdown has learned an expensive lesson between commodities and commodity stocks.

  • Along those lines, and despite the recent pullback, I'm still long metal equities (such as Golden Star (GSS)) as I believe the consolidation in commodity equities continues (I first offered this thought in January).

  • I wonder if the folks next to me on my flight last night from the left coast could hear my iPod. I mean, to toggle between Tupac, Petty, Biggie, Jerry, Henley and MWA (Minyans with Attitude) had to be a bit confusing.

  • Speaking of flight chatter, I was sitting next to an American Airlines pilot on one of my many cross-country legs of late. I asked him what he thought about the new Airbus and he said "Not much-it's so heavy, the landing stanchions have a tendency to break. Plus, they're so heavy, most airstrips aren't hard enough to hold 'em. On a hot day, they'll sink into the tarmac." No wonder FedEx gave 'em the boot, eh?

  • "My firm issued a technical-based tactical sell in Retail Stocks (RTH) this morning. Our STS (short-term sentiment) rose above 99.78 which is where we show how smart money offers are currently stacked. Tactical Buys & Sells are explained in this tutorial." Jess Thompson on this morning's Buzz.

  • We're T-minus 11 days away from the first annual Minyans in Manhattan-Critters Choice Awards. Think about this, Minyans-in the afternoon, from 1:00-5:00 EST, we'll feature financial foresight from Steve Galbraith (former Chief US Strategist at Morgan Stanley), Jeff Saut (Chief Investment Strategist at Raymond James), Jonathan Golub (US Equity Strategist JP Morgan), Michael Santoli (Sr. Editor, Barron's), Todd Harrison (that's me), Jeff Bernstein (founding partner, Keel Capital), Jeff Macke (Fast Money maven), Stephanie Pomboy (President, MacroMavens), Bennet Sedacca (President, Atlantic Advisors), Steve Shobin (Vice-Chairman, Americap Advisors), John Succo (Partner, Vicis Capital), Greg Weldon (Founder, Weldon Financial) and Phil Erlanger (President, Phil Erlanger Research).

    That night, from
    6:30-10:30 EST, we'll be rolling up our sleeves for a Festivus of the First order at Country Restaurant, which was tabbed by Esquire as one of the hottest spots in the USA, to honor Trent Tucker for his work with children. A number of his former teammates, including Patrick Ewing, Charles Oakley and John Starks, along with other notables such as Michael Strahan, Howard Cross and Emmanuelle Chriqui (Sloane from Entourage) have already RSVP'd so this promises to be quite a party. Besides, as 100% of the net proceeds will benefit the Ruby Peck Foundation for Children's Education, how bad can it be? Please Click Here for more information and join us as we celebrate the best of 2006 and together turn the corner towards 2007!

  • We kinda sorta figured that S&P 1400 would cap last week's run. With expiration constraints six feet under, the question remains whether we see performance anxiety continue (into year-end) or exhaustion (given the toppy stochastics and the removal of November protection).

  • If it's the latter matter, S&P 1390 will once again be the bovine line in the sand. And, for what it's worth, I think we test it sooner rather than later.

  • Goldman at a deuce ($200). Man, my bent on the banks has got to be one of the chillier feels of my sixteen year career.

  • What if, at the end of the day, it really does come down to the elasticity of debt?


R.P.

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Position in metals, GSS
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