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Retail E-Mail and Friday Tubthumping


"A Friday collapse! I feel like Leon Lett getting caught from behind while high-steppin'!"


Minyan Dano writes:

"Jeff- Do you think the softline downgrades at Smith Barney are based more on getting in front of the calender ("sell 'em by Thanksgiving... ahead of 'Santa ain't coming' fears") or real fundamental/ valuation reasons? It's hard to get inside someone's head and know their motives, I'm just curious what your immediate reaction is."

My first reaction, which has a street value of exactly 0, was "Wow... that makes a ton of sense." (My second, less germane thought was "The only people who ever call me Jeff are my wife and my mom. 'Macke' or something ending in 'head' are more familiar to my ear.")

Christmas selling (meant non-denominationally to mean 'December') isn't looking like an unfettered train-wreck but it's not looking like the kind of blow-out season that could fuel another leg up on the generally extended retailers (the retailers who aren't extended ought not be touched).

Punch up a chart of the Retail Holdrs Trust (RTH). If I'm lucky enough to be long anything that builds a chart like that and I'm pondering reasons to take some gains it means I'm thinking way too hard. A light-ish downgrade (no verbotten "SELL" calls were issued, just trims) was the right call regardless of what the stocks did today. Given the drops, today I'll go ahead and upgrade my reaction from "makes sense" to "Hey, nice call".

Odd ends:

Three separate lines of content from this one link (value, baby)

  1. That's the type of givin' behavior that makes me think "Minyan".
  2. Eminem's new album, Encore is the first new release in years that I actually listened to from start to finish in one sitting. Given my attention span, that's the highest of praise.
  3. That said, was I the only one to notice that 8-Mile was a naked rip-off of Purple Rain?

  • You mean we're forced to watch Elmer give evasive answers to poorly asked questions live from start to finish everytime he testifies yet when they actually talk about something we might enjoy we have to read about in the paper?

  • John Roque remains wrong: Stan Musial, while unquestionably a great ball player, can't possibly be called "underrated" and calling him less appreciated than the Mighty Kirby Puckett is preposterous. Stan "The Man" played in 24 All Star games and won 3-MVPs. Judging by my email, all anyone remembers about Kirby is that he was accused of a sex crime on the cover of Sports Illustrated. I'm still waiting for SI's "Kirby was acquitted by a jury in less than an hour" cover story.

  • Mr. Roque's (who is a Great mkt technician) stance is akin to claiming that Elvis is underrated relative to The Replacements (the most underrated band in history).

  • Mighty impressive leadership being shown by Disney (DIS) and the NFL in the wake of the fake T.O. MNF controversy, huh? For all the people involved in producing the program you'd think at least one of them woulda known about the filming and airing of the segment ahead of time.

  • Then again, none of the 25 folks who were Directors at the NYSE in the 90's were aware of paying Dick Grasso 9-figures.... there must be a lot of very tricky, very naughty minded low-level employees secretly running things.

  • One person.... just one willing to stand up and say "We were hoping that Terrell and Nicolette's scene would create some 'buzz' but this is even better than we imagined!" or "Yeah, in retrospect it was a stupid amount of money to pay the guy. Hey, they were wild times and we, collectively, were caught up in it".... one person, male or female, with the won-tons to tell the truth when the stakes are high. Is that really too much to hope for?
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