Trade to win...never trade not to lose!
You step inside but you don't see too many faces
Coming in out of the rain to hear the jazz go down
Too much competition, too many other places
But not too many horns can make that sound
Is it me or is this an extremely tense day relative to the price action? The street is relatively slow (so far) and the only merchandise I've seen is the hedge fund hot potato. Hoofy is surely doing everything he can to squeeze the tape through S&P 1040 but, as it stands, he hasn't mustered the ketchup. This raises the obvious question: If--and this is a huge if--the dynamic has shifted (and they can't push through), will the bulls be the towel tossing critters of choice?
Our primary tells support the marginally green screens. The semis are trying to stay sticky (watch the semicaps, though, they're not as dry), the dollar is dead-catting, gold is softer, breadth is skewed to the plus side and the banks (not the brokers) are trying to shrug. It's also very thin out there (as evidenced by that 1:30 poppage), so put limits on those orders and look for the seams before swinging at the pitch.
Today's action aside (for a moment), I want to share a nugget forwarded to me by a fellow Minyan (I believe Ned Davis Research put out a piece). The average price to book, at secular lows has ranged from .7 (when interest rates are low) to 1 (when interest rates are high). As it stands, our current price to book is 3 on the S&P and 3.89 on the Dow Jones. Today's business? No, but it certainly has the ability to fashion Boo's cap like an Indian headdress.
We've got Hewlett (HPQ:NYSE) tonight and some fresh economic data in the morning so factor that into your overnight risk profile. As for the rest of the session, I've seen a pick-up in short covering the last 20 minutes or so and that's contributed to the jumpy action. Boo looks rather nervous but I told our resident bear to chill out and relax his grip on the handlebars. Expiration is likely adding to the crosswinds but once it's all said and done, his teepee will prolly stand tall.
Finally, alotta Minyans weighed in on the money vs. happiness thought and I wanted to share a response. Minyan Chuck Gall writes "A wise man once told me that money only allows you be more of what you are. If you are generous, it makes you more generous. If you a jerk, it makes you a bigger jerk." That's true, to an extent, but I would hope that man (or woman) is capable of change. For, if nothing else, I get the sense that money is gonna get a lot scarcer in the years ahead.
Good luck into the close.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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