Tickle me Turtle
Strange shadows from the flames will grow
Till things we've never seen will seem familiar
Another day, another drama. A blurb hit the tape that Iraq promises to declare their weapons by the December 8th deadline and the tape knee jerked as a reflex. I've been waiting for higher prices to fade (read: sell) and while the action-traction in the banks gives me pause, my inclination is to slip my other leg back into my bear costume (makes 50%). Keep in mind, please, that my time frame is not necessarily limited to today. I'm trading around a short thesis and will nibble on dips and pepper on blips. So you know.
The action in Home Depot is weighing on the retailing sector and this complex remains a key psychological tell for the consumer. I understand the concept of seasonality but I'm also of the belief that the effects of the bear market operate in a trickle down thesis. In other words, the longer the bear lasts, the more discretionary income is chewed through and the less people will spend. It's not an overnight process....it takes time. Personally, I think the same dynamic is in play in real estate, but that's a conversation for another time.
I'm gonna post this so it gets up in a timely fashion and I'll circle back in a bit. Hope this finds you well.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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