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Stevie's Wonder

By

From our family to yours---have a fantastic night!

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When you believe in things
That you don't understand,
Then you suffer
Superstition ain't the way


(Stevie Wonder)



The Thursday vibe is startin' to jibe as I sit down for my final scribe. The morning flurry was chock full of bear costumes, barefoot trading and downside probes but the tetherball tape has since stalemated. Now, with contra hour about to end and expiration set to begin, we turn our attention to our overnight risk and attendant exposure. What's more, I've gotta figure out if I have the moxie to meet Steve Galbraith while wearing half a bear costume!

All metaphorical references aside, today's action (thus far) has been a whole lotta nuttin'. Crude has been bouncing around like my belly, the dollar has (gasp!) held a half percent gain, the metals have been a bit laggy on the heels of the GLD ETF and fixed income notched marginal gains. I was extremely active trading around my energy exposure this morning (vs. the merchandise bought in front of yesterday's data) and I'm luggin' home some special situations in that space. I still believe that the drillers are one of the few sectors with constructive field position (not advice) but trades are made to be taken.

I've had a lot of conversations with traders who have bought into the year-end rally because 1) the tape acts great and 2) they can't afford to miss the upside. Without getting into whether or not their wish is granted (it very well may be), it's important to remember that risk management is directionally independent. The toughest part of writing this column is that there are a litany of time frames and styles among the Minyanship. We don't give advice, as you know, but I would strongly advise that you understand the parameters of your exposure and factor in the entire probability spectrum. And it goes without saying that you should never be in a position where an outcome, no matter how unlikely, will put you in the poor house.

As I pen, the semis are gigglin' green and testing the 200-day once again. When I slipped my legs into the fur this morning, part of the reasoning was trappage in the SOX and BKX (as a function of false breakouts). I've set my "stop" above yesterday's SX&P high and won't hesitate to undress should those levels trigger. My 'gut' is that a meatier decline isn't too far away (after expiration?) but as we know, discipline trumps conviction every day and twice on Sunday.

I'm gonna hop back over to the Buzz and ride this puppy into thy bell that tolls. I sincerely hope you all had a fantastic day and that you have an even better night.

May peace be with you.

R.P.

No positions in stocks mentioned.
Charlotte-Anne Lucas is the Editor-In-Chief of Minyanville.com.
The information on this website solely reflects an analysis of market trends or conditions by Ms. Lucas or any guest writer and nothing contained in this article or on this website should be interpreted as or deemed to be a recommendation to any investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security. Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her investment adviser. Lucas will not respond to requests for investment advice. Nothing contained on this website is intended as a solicitation for business of any kind or for investment in the Fund.

Charlotte-Anne welcomes your comments and/or feedback at editor@minyanville.com. Copyright 2011 Minyanville Publishing and Multimedia, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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