By Todd Harrison Nov 18, 2004 11:52 am
- "Toddo- Did you know that the S&P 10-day Daily Sentiment Index (MBH Commodity Advisers) has now jumped to a 17-year RECORD high of 88.2%. Hmmm, 17 years ago... yep, 1987. August 1987. Sentiment has now eclipsed THAT level, as has S&P price/peak earnings multiple at 21.08. And of course August 1987 was only one of three times in history (the others being December 1972 before the two year wipeout and NOW) with Investors Intelligence readings of bulls>bears and correction<20% at the same time S&P price/peak earnings >18. I wonder if EVERYONE was writing in late August 1987 about "buying the dip" when the pullback to support came? I haven't heard you say it in a while (and I am certainly NOT saying the market cannot go higher), but if the devil's goal is to prove to everyone that he doesn't exist, might his job be about finished?- Uber-Minyan JB"
- Oy vey is Jane!
- Bubble me once, shame on you. Bubble me twice, shame on me.
- The dip in crude (-2%) has given the bulls a fresh dose of hope as we edge through the Thursday dew. The internals, while still 3:2 negative, are off their worst levels as traders scan the crowd for signs of Snapper. Remember, Minyans, with expiration looming tomorrow, the potential for exacerbation exists (both ways).
- I did something this morning that I haven't done in over a year. No, it wasn't exercise (I still try to go through those motions)--I slipped two legs into my metaphorical bear costume. For those unfamiliar with the process, there are two costumes--a bull and a bear. Each limb represents a level of conviction on that side of the trade. One leg equals 25% conviction, two legs equals 50% conviction and, if the time comes that I slip both arms in, it represents 100% conviction (a rarity). As it stands, I've got two legs in the fur with a stop level above yesterday's highs. It's a relatively tight risk/reward profile and I'm comfortable with the posture.
- Now we know why Chinese food is delivered by bicycle!
- Critter quarantine? Reports that the U.S. may have found a second case of mad cow disease has pounded cattle prices in Chicago.
- Prayers to our soldiers as they juggle cans of worms.
- Did Collins really go to Florida?
- Hedge fund hot potato.
- "If there is a concern, it's the recent rise in bullish sentiment. Consensus bulls are now over 70% on stocks, 10-day put/call are running .54. Both are the worst sentiment readings for these respective indicators since the January peak. If there's a contrary trade out there it would be to own the $ and bonds and short stocks. We don't see much evidence of that being the right call technically, but it's certainly playing contrarily." -Jeff DeGraaf
- The cyclicals have traded dry all session.
- Please watch Applied Materials (AMAT:NASD) as a "shrug" tell."
- He should just come to the 'Ville and we'll fire up the tunes for him!
- Which one of you nuts has any guts?
- Scotty J. Collins.
- The OSX is the only sector on my screen with constructive stochastics.
- In lieu of flowers, I will ask that all mourners of my November puts visit the Ruby Peck Foundation for Children's Education.
- Waiting for the Gold ETF to exhale.
- R.I.P USD.
- Calling all Minyans! If you're diggin' the 'Ville and wanna toss the critters a bone, please help us spread the Minyan vibe. All you have to do is click here and young Billy Meehan will send you a template offering a gratis month of Minyanville on your behalf. If you could forward that to as many people (and critters) as possible, we would be forever grateful. Thanks!
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