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Random Thoughts


Mad cow!

  • "Toddo- Did you know that the S&P 10-day Daily Sentiment Index (MBH Commodity Advisers) has now jumped to a 17-year RECORD high of 88.2%. Hmmm, 17 years ago... yep, 1987. August 1987. Sentiment has now eclipsed THAT level, as has S&P price/peak earnings multiple at 21.08. And of course August 1987 was only one of three times in history (the others being December 1972 before the two year wipeout and NOW) with Investors Intelligence readings of bulls>bears and correction<20% at the same time S&P price/peak earnings >18. I wonder if EVERYONE was writing in late August 1987 about "buying the dip" when the pullback to support came? I haven't heard you say it in a while (and I am certainly NOT saying the market cannot go higher), but if the devil's goal is to prove to everyone that he doesn't exist, might his job be about finished?- Uber-Minyan JB"

  • Oy vey is Jane!

  • Bubble me once, shame on you. Bubble me twice, shame on me.

  • The dip in crude (-2%) has given the bulls a fresh dose of hope as we edge through the Thursday dew. The internals, while still 3:2 negative, are off their worst levels as traders scan the crowd for signs of Snapper. Remember, Minyans, with expiration looming tomorrow, the potential for exacerbation exists (both ways).

  • I did something this morning that I haven't done in over a year. No, it wasn't exercise (I still try to go through those motions)--I slipped two legs into my metaphorical bear costume. For those unfamiliar with the process, there are two costumes--a bull and a bear. Each limb represents a level of conviction on that side of the trade. One leg equals 25% conviction, two legs equals 50% conviction and, if the time comes that I slip both arms in, it represents 100% conviction (a rarity). As it stands, I've got two legs in the fur with a stop level above yesterday's highs. It's a relatively tight risk/reward profile and I'm comfortable with the posture.

  • Now we know why Chinese food is delivered by bicycle!

  • Critter quarantine? Reports that the U.S. may have found a second case of mad cow disease has pounded cattle prices in Chicago.

  • Prayers to our soldiers as they juggle cans of worms.

  • Did Collins really go to Florida?

  • Hedge fund hot potato.

  • "If there is a concern, it's the recent rise in bullish sentiment. Consensus bulls are now over 70% on stocks, 10-day put/call are running .54. Both are the worst sentiment readings for these respective indicators since the January peak. If there's a contrary trade out there it would be to own the $ and bonds and short stocks. We don't see much evidence of that being the right call technically, but it's certainly playing contrarily." -Jeff DeGraaf

  • The cyclicals have traded dry all session.

  • Please watch Applied Materials (AMAT:NASD) as a "shrug" tell."

  • He should just come to the 'Ville and we'll fire up the tunes for him!

  • Which one of you nuts has any guts?

  • Scotty J. Collins.

  • The OSX is the only sector on my screen with constructive stochastics.

  • In lieu of flowers, I will ask that all mourners of my November puts visit the Ruby Peck Foundation for Children's Education.

  • Waiting for the Gold ETF to exhale.

  • R.I.P USD.

  • Calling all Minyans! If you're diggin' the 'Ville and wanna toss the critters a bone, please help us spread the Minyan vibe. All you have to do is click here and young Billy Meehan will send you a template offering a gratis month of Minyanville on your behalf. If you could forward that to as many people (and critters) as possible, we would be forever grateful. Thanks!

No positions in stocks mentioned.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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