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Rose Hill


Sometimes the ability not to trade is as important as trading ability.


Just like Jack the Ripper, just like Mojo Hand
Just like Billy Sunday in a shotgun ragtime band
Just like New York City, just like Jericho
Pace the halls and climb the walls, get out when they blow

(Grateful Dead)

The afternoon seas are a trading tease as the bears eye the fleas and bulls try to squeeze. Our aforementioned lows got punched in the nose but it remains to be seen if the sell side grows. On the one paw, the breadth (which was the most obvious positive) is slowly givin' it up, the banks continue to act lethargic and the semis have given up their 2% gain. On the other hoof, the bears have had ample opportunity to put a fork in the Minx and have (thus far) been thwarted. Tug of war on the trading floor? Absolutely.

The tricky aspect of this juncture is that we're both overbought (longer term) and oversold (near-term) at the same time. This highlights the importance of defining your time horizon before stepping onto the field. I've made no secret of the fact that I don't like the tape (on its merits) but I remain acutely aware of the agendas in play and the structural metric (liquidity). The question I'm now chewing on (and the reason I'm so focused on the financials) is whether the headlines (reality) can prick the psychology bubble.

Today's session, in and of itself, is offering few clues. The banks have dried up a bit, the breadth is marginally positive, the biotechs and internets are still under distribution (albeit at a slower pace) and the tone is...jittery. As discussed this morning (f.f), I faded the opening and tightened up my stops on the peripheral exposure.

As it stands, the mighty Minx has put in three lower highs today and a violation of those trendlines will be the first hint at an upside agenda. From a broader perspective, I'm happy to use those rallies to add downside exposure (financials and techs) and keep some cheapie upside calls as a hedge. For the rest of the session, however, it remains unclear.

We've gotten a slew of new Minyans in the last couple of weeks so, at the risk of redundancy, I would like to remind you that this is an educational community and not an advice site. Our hope is that by sharing our insights, we'll add value to your thought process and allow you to make more informed decisions. If we can do that while, at the same time, raising money to help the kids, then Minyanville will have accomplished our goal.

As always, I hope this finds you well.

No positions in stocks mentioned.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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