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Rat Race

By

Good luck Minyans!

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I believe in the kingdom come
Then all the colors will bleed into one
Bleed into one
Well yes I'm still running


(U2)

So, I'm sitting here watching the action (and listening to Fokker's stories of his weekend exploits with Zed) when BAM!--out of nowhere, my office door flew open. As smoke slowly billowed into the room, Boo stepped forward with a look of anger and disgust. "Talk about premature evacuation," he began, "I haven't even taken my poncho off and you're already making covers. What the heck is going on?"

I tossed Greg's red rubber ball back to him (nasty) and invited the frazzled fur to sit by my side. "I'm not abandoning the bear thesis," I carefully explained, "I'm simply rotating my risk and redeploying my capital. Am I being too granular? Perhaps...there's a decent shot that the next leg lower is a doozy. But I've mapped out a game plan and will execute my strategy as a function of price. I'm still on your side, brother--as a matter of fact, before you burst in, I was walking through my laundry list looking at potential short candidates."

"But read your own column, Toddo." he countered, "the breadth is sour, the internets are fugly, Europe closed on its lows, the brokers...well, I guess they act relatively well...but, uh, the breadth, yeah, the breadth is horrid! Why trade and catch a few handles when the suitcase is full of losers?" I could tell that our resident bear was wound pretty tight. I put my hand on his shoulder, looked him in the eye and smiled.

"My only point is that the Nazz was down 5% since Friday's opening and vols (VIX) jumped a quick 20%. That's not even two full trading sessions, cookie, and I wanted to see what kind of bounce they could muster. As it stands, Hoofy's response has been rather anemic. If I'm right--and there's no guarantee that I am--bounce potential remains but the upside is somewhat limited. It really comes down to your time frame and trading style."

Boo slowly nodded his head as he let the information sink in. "So...the Burned Razor thesis is still in motion?" "Yes," I responded, "and I still think that when (if) there is a time to buy 'em, it'll feel like the wrong thing to do. Remember, bottoms are points but tops are processes. There's still a pretty powerful agenda in play and the powers that be will do everything they can to keep the lights on. Now take a deep breath and get back out there--you're gonna be a busy bear for the next few weeks."

With a newfound pep in his step, Boo bounced from the room and made his way towards his turret. While the calendar was quiet, he knew that a handful of conferences started tomorrow and expiration loomed on Friday. Moreover, he wanted to get himself in shape so when the closing bell tolls, he'll be comfortable with his overnight risk. The market is open long enough during the day. The last thing he wanted to do is spend the entire night schnvitzing.

Fare ye well into the close.


No positions in stocks mentioned.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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