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Random Thoughts


I bet it's been a big night in Sydney!

  • "I saw the exchange on the Buzz recently regarding the two sides of deflation. So you know, and for what it's worth, I'm "buying" the deflation argument longer term but I'm also buying metals. The metals (particularly gold/silver) have had every chance to collapse-including muted inflation and a strong dollar-and they're still quite strong. The story for gold/silver, in the face of deflation, is a flight to quality and safety. Just my sense and wanted to share-I love you guys and think the quality of the content on the 'Ville is fantastic." -- Minyan Steve Shobin of Americap Advisors

  • There was a big article in the Journal this morning highlighting the value of virtual real estate. We've touched on this topic before and I believe that it will continue to manifest as we edge through the digital age.

  • Keep an eye out for ants!

  • "NASDAQ underwent the first day of distribution since the October lows, but breadth and volume, while negative were consistent with a corrective consolidation. Overall, breadth has us nervous as it has failed to mimic the price action of the broader indices, but breadth is conditional, and not a catalyst for action. To us, breadth is best used to assess the risks inherent to the market, not as a "go" or "no-go" factor." -- Jeff DeGraaf of Lehman Brothers.

  • Speaking of insects, it's time to chime at the Roach Motel.

  • We've been asking Minyans from the Mountain if they wanna return to Ojai or vibe in a new locale for MiM3. The feedback has been skewed to a Redeux and I'm not surprised (especially from those on Succo's softball squad).

  • Inertia Alert! Gold is up $9, silver is testing multi-year highs, the XAU is 4.25% higher and teeth are being pulled all over the Street. XAU 115 is the next level on the bovine radar.

  • It's Awesome Baby!

  • My eyes keep migrating to the financials. Partially because I'm still involved and partially because they're the best tell for the broader tape. So you know--and if you care--I'm using the recent high in JP Morgan (JPM) ($38.40) as my proxy.

  • There will always be ample reason to be long or short. The trick is identifying the largest disconnect between perception and an impending reality.

  • Three weeks 'till the all-star guitar auction!

  • Centurian Card Be Damned! American Express (AXP) lowered earnings estimates this morning and that has weighed on the fray. As Professor Succo astutely (and quickly) noted, the three largest credit card issuers are JP Morgan (JPM), Citigroup (C) and Bank of America (BAC).

  • Mini-Minyan Mailbag:

    "Laurie, I'm looking for some good "gold books" to read. Any thoughts? Thanks! Minyan Neal"

    Hi Neal-

    Looking for some holiday reading??? Here are a few off the top of my head:
    • The Power of Gold by Peter Bernstein - it is the benchmark!
    • Gold Wars by Ferdi Lipps
    • Golden Fetters - The gold standard and the depression- Barry Eichengreen - this is hard read unlike the above 2.
    • The BRE-X Fraud - Goold and Willis.
    • The Money Miners - Trevor Sykes.

  • Speaking of Laurie-I may have to check into Australian beverage plays.

  • Addressing delegates to the LBMA Precious Metals Conference on its last day, Russia's Head of External Reserves Management, Maria Guegina, said gold reserves as a proportion of all reserves may be doubled, according to Noting that Russia presently has 5% of its national reserve portfolio invested in gold, Guegina said, "10% of gold in reserves would be appropriate." She gave no time frame for the change. Russia presently has 500 tonnes (17.64moz) of gold in reserves which it segregates as monetary gold, allocated gold and term deposits. (10:00 AM Buzz)

  • Pearls? With corduroy? Are you mad?

  • Keep in mind that expiration influences will likely manifest today and tomorrow (rather than Friday). This increases the potential for whippy action (both ways). Stay on ye toes, Minyans.

  • "The Russell 2000 (RUT) has now broken a triple bottom on a point & figure chart with the move below 652.50. This follows a triple top break, very unusual action to see buy and sell signals battle it out so close together, but action far more typical of significant tops than at bottoms. And the broad market context remains negative." -- Pepe Depew on today's Buzz

  • Fare ye well into the bell.

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Position in jpm, select metal equities
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