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Random Thoughts

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Get it through your head Boo--Franklin is untouchable!

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  • After failing the drug test, Calamari Charlie had to give back his gold metal.

  • A cry from Red Dye!

  • The Green Bay hackers!

  • "The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation is thoroughly bankrupt no matter how you look at it," said Douglas Elliott, president of the Center on Federal Financial Institutions, a new nonpartisan Washington think tank; it so far is funded largely by Mr. Elliott himself, a former Wall Street investment banker. "I think the government probably is going to have to sponsor a bailout at some point." While the PBGC has enough cash from investments and premiums to pay benefits for now, Mr. Elliott estimates that the PBGC eventually could hit a deficit of $100 billion and run out of cash altogether around 2020. - Wall Street Journal, 11/16/04

  • Sounds like my club hopping days!

  • The DXY is again probing nine year lows after yesterday's timid bounce.

  • Patience and discipline are not mutually exclusive trading endeavors.

  • My good friend Harry Silver at Jefco pinged to let me know that there is outsized open interest in the S&P 1175 and 1190 line (through Friday). It's his opinion that a derivative magnet exists at S&P 1175 and negative gamma won't kick in on the upside unless we power through 1200.

  • Does Citi (C:NYSE) pin $45? Asking the question (not advice) as it'll help paint the broader landscape.

  • Patently overbought conditions in patently overvalued markets are the stuff that ruined retirements are made of. Though many investment managers are frantic to 'make their number' for the year, there's a certain recklessness in taking substantial investment risk here. We certainly don't rely on a renewed market bubble, which is what investors have to rely on if they take a lot of risk here." - John Hussman, Hussman Funds

  • I didn't believe the T.O hype. Now I do.

  • Ok, just so I'm sure that I've got this right. Crude finally spills 18% from the highs and the PPI has the biggest jump since January 1990?

  • And I have credibility as a dieter.

  • Bummed if it bursts, bummed if it doesn't.

  • Speaking of a dead housing market...

  • This isn't a politically motivated thought--I honestly thought that the water was already under the bridge--but as it could conceivably impact psychology which, in turn, could affect the market, I wanted to toss the faint, blinking blip on your radar.

  • The bulls view this (first) dip as a necessary and overdue evil that needed to be heeded if they're to romp into '05. And that psychology will persist until dip #3 fails to hold.

  • Aunt Fannie (FNM:NYSE) comes from a lax family.

  • Pin risk abounds. Look for outsized open-interest relative to average daily volume.

  • Some balanced bullets from Snoop Tony Dwyer: 1) Rather than focus on overbought, we would like to look at what equity breakout could mean. While a correction is very possible, we can make a technical case for SPX 1220 in coming months. 2) While mutual fund cash as a percentage of assets remains near historic low, there is a source of buying power. 3) We want to remember why we have been and continue to be bullish; Core inflation and interest rates remain historically low, the yield curve remains steep (even with more Fed action), earnings should grow with the economy (SPX correlates most directly to earnings at 0.95) and valuations have come down as corporate profits surged. All in all, this is a pretty good environment for owning equities when coupled with a constructive technical and historical framework.

  • John Succo's column yesterday was brilliantly articulated and deserves a second--and third--read.

    R.P.
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