What phase of the rally are we in (denial, migration, panic)? I dunno either but it seems somehow worth noting that my Oft-Mention chart Doc's pings have taken on the flavor of a pep-rally ("CERN, baby, CERN!") as opposed to a conversation.
- Now that the 47's are in crude's rearview the 42 area beckons as support. I'm not offering advice on that front (and I'd suggest running from anyone who did) but as an "If... then" scenario "IF oil is going to $42; THEN the airlines [Industry Motto: "Losing money since 1902!"] should work higher.
- It's not really a "dip" unless buyin' 'em during the move is hard.
- Buying 'em today, down 2.3 on the SPX, doesn't quite qualify now does it.
- I've put the question "out there" to Prof's who do this kind of work but any and all quant-jock views are welcome (even if they don't shop) on the following: "Over the last 12 months, how have the markets traded into the close (last 2 hours) on days where stocks are flat (plus/minus .5%) while oil is down > 1%?"
- My guess to the above is "we close strong" but it's only a guess.
- Regarding the retail poll; I'm trying to control for possible bias (as in "shorts trying to talk their books") both ways. It's not a requirement for participating (all responses are welcome) but sharing how your book relates to your view will help in my search for tradeable takes.
- I'm a little surprised that they would suggest it but these guys are right; Americans should start setting up camp in Canada. Having a good installed base up north will help W's plan to "Make Canada a state by '07" run more smoothly.
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