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Random Thoughts


Is this the best that ya got, Boo?


  • Daisy will be returning from Berlin later today.

  • "We are at present seeing a spate of extreme confidence, one of the most extreme in recent history. I'm not sure what this means, but we should know shortly. Personally, I prefer a market that's rising on rising fear rather than one that's climbing on rising confidence. I might add that as in every technical device there's a potential flaw. The potential flaw in the S&P/VIX ratio is that we never know "how high is high." However, if the S&P closes higher today with the VIX lower, the ratio will probably be at a record high in confidence. That would be enough to make me cautious, very cautious." -Richard Russell, November 11,2004

  • Congrats to our friends at CBS MarketWatch (MKTW:NASD) on their recent adoption.

  • Liquidity and debt don't equal a strong economy, it just lends to a strong market.

  • 40,000,000 shares of Google (GOOG:NASD) become "unlocked" tomorrow with an additional 227,000,000 shares available for sale incrementally over the next six months. This is "widely anticipated" although it does create supply to the giggly dynamic.

  • Daisylicious!

  • Crude down 3% while the tape waffles. Causation?

  • A slew of traders simultaneously hit me with the "holy cow--do you see how low the put/call is?"

  • Greg "Mr. February" Fokker?

  • With momentum at its highest reading since the low in March of '03, most trend indications reflect an upward bias. The S&P 1500 now has 86% of its issues above their own 50-day, while the SPX has 90.1% above their own 50-day. In addition, every sector except Energy shows 80% of their constituents above their own 50-day moving average, Energy being the laggard with a respectable 74% of its issues above the 50-day. Those readings imply an overbought condition, but in the face of momentum, such readings are a reflection of market strength, and best used as a warning should they begin to diverge, not as they continue to ascend. -Jeff DeGraaf of Lehman Brothers

  • Critters be shoppin'!

  • Collins trading radar is the best roadmap in the Street.

  • Today's the day that Aunt Fannie (FNM:NYSE) is supposed to file their 10-Q. But more and more analysts are saying that they'll blow it off as the risk of filing outweighs the risk of not filing. Along those lines, I think I'm gonna throw out my scale!

  • STILL looking for a vaca!

  • Saw Ray over the weekend. Thought it was good not great.

  • Sometimes the tape is rockin' and the content is shocking. Sometimes the minxy script hits a lull. Take what she gives you and don't force trades that aren't there. (hint: they will always be there with the benefit of hindsight)

  • "In markets where investors hand over their money to professionals, the major inefficiency becomes career risk. Everyone's ultimate job description becomes "keep your job." Career risk-reduction takes precedence over maximizing client's return. Efficient career-risk management means never being wrong on your own, so herding, perhaps for different reasons, characterizes professional investing. Herding produces momentum in prices, pushing them further away from fair value as people buy because others are buying." -Jeremy Grantham, as quoted by Jeffrey Saut in his always excellent weekly missive.

position in fnm

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

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