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Random Thoughts

By

Anyone else have a case of the Mondays?

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  • This would help explain Snapper's incessant energy of late.

  • Vuja De? The financials have been the tell for the tape during this latest and greatest lift. They opened pink (slightly red) this morning and they're still trying to find their horse . Would some laggage be shocking? No Ma'am, not after the eye-popping run they've had. But if Hoofy is gonna hold on to the baton, the overbought condition must be alleviated via time (rather than price) or through a rolling rotation (of leadership sectors).

  • Got time? Get milk! Or, circle back to the Ten Trading Commandments.

  • QQQQ $40ish remains will be initial support if these four letter freaks decide to take a break.

  • Buzz, American Style (12:00)

    We try to stay mindful in the 'Ville and yesterday, while listening to a musician play guitar by the pond in Central Park, I couldn't help feeling particularly pleasant. The fact that he broke out a tri-fecta of Thunder Road, Mrs. Robinson and Revolution didn't hurt the mojo either.

    Strumming back into the saddle, the Monday muse is a quiet fuse. The internals have snuck 2:1 to the bad, the bank/broker duopoly is pink in synch and the energy complex has coughed up the earlier gains. The semis (+50 bips) and select cyclicals (Georgia Peach) are trying to put on a brave face but given our (overbought) field position, some retracement wouldn't shock the critters.

    I would think that Boo would have to turn the screws soon, however, or the growing chorus of "can't get 'em down" will drown out his ursine intentions. As always, I hope this finds you jinglin' baby.

  • Iran. Is Iran so far away?

  • Note the stealth slippage in the XAU as the metals give back some of pa nub from Friday. As my time horizon is longer-term, I'm gripping the handlebars loose and light.

  • Will current psychology deem no news "good news" or is this the type of conditioned complacency that precedes the path of maximum frustration?

  • "The SPX surprised us with the strength of its rally phase from the Bernanke lows, a month ago. The reasons behind the PR spin may have more to do with the Fed's behavior behind the scenes than to any other reason. The growth of the Money Supply has accelerated very sharply over the last 10 weeks. The greatest part of this occurred over the storm season, naturally. The growth of MZM, the broadest measure of Money Supply has gone from virtually flat in July to up over 10% annualized in the fall. The last two weeks of data show a downturn that represents a trend break. That could mean tighter liquidity will now follow for the weeks up to Xmas when the yr-end float normally begins to assist banks' closing of their annual books." -- Richard Williams, Garban Trading Plan

  • Da Ali lawsuit?

  • "Our liquidity and complexity work continues to point to an inversion before year-end, and that this inversion strongly increases the probabilities of a negative GDP quarter next year and a, perhaps serious, decline in certain industries' economic activity (specifically those that arose on the back of the reflationary yield curve steepener from 2001 to 2003)." -- Scotto Reamer on today's Buzz

  • Perspective check.

  • Mini-Minyan Instant Message

    Minyan Bennet: Some anecdotal evidence from my contacts--clients are 'fed up' with not making money. I sense that any move lower will be greeted with quick liquidations (no cash at the mutual funds). What you say?

    Toddo: Possible, but the potential for long squeeze/performance anxiety is there as well. The only thing worse than losing money, in the eyes of many managers, is not keeping up with the Dow Joneses. I see both sides.

    Minyan Bennet: Volatility is certainly cheap enuf to play for both.

    Toddo: Indeed.

  • Are you a red state or a pinstriped state?

  • Gaps on my radar? Pfizer ($22.5-$24) and Maxim (MXIM) (to $39ish).

  • While a pullback is perhaps overdue, this is one of the dullest tapes in recent memories. And you know what they say about dull tapes...


    R.P.
Position in metal equities, pfe, mxim

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

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