It's gettin' hot in here (so hot)...
And the warmth of your smile starts a-burnin'
And the thrill of your touch gives me fright
And I'm shaking so much, really yearning
Why don't you show up, make it all right?
The afternoon breeze continues with ease as the Minx tries to shake her fleas. The question on everyone's lips? Where, pray tell, is Snapper and does he have the moxie to make a late Friday cameo? The pure trading tells paint a tough picture for our resident terrapin. The semis are soft, the brokers trade broken, the internets are in repent and the Nazz tone tastes tart. Still, hope springs eternal for the eternal spring and lingers remain.
For my part, my strategy remains constant although I've pared some drug exposure and hedged the upside (via trading longs with tight stops). If we take out today's lows, it could turn fugly in a hurry but, until then, the risk/reward warrants the bushes. I am still of the belief that the downside potential outweighs the upside but that doesn't mean that it's today's business (or that acne can't emerge first).
By the way, I pulled a rant from this morning's opening piece but, as it's somewhat slow, I figured I'd share it with ye faithful Minyans.
What irks me--and I don't get irked easily--is the way in which some of these "pundits" are offering up the bait. Middle America, by and large, doesn't have the facilities to differentiate between financial fact and fiction. They're not in the stock game, they're simply working at building a better life for themselves and their family. All they know is that the market is rallying, rates are flatlining and they feel like they're missing the party. They turn on the television, see the incessant rambling of somebody who supposedly "knows" and take the bite--hook, line and sinker. Never mind that some of these guys on TV have been bullish all the way down from NASDAQ 5000.
...market risk is clearly rising and that fact is being left out of the mainstream media. Anytime you have a liquidity driven rally accompanied by the conditional elements that are currently in place, it warrants risk management. Profits are a privilege, not a right, and that thought is often lost on the mindset of America.
Am I too bearish? Maybe for today...or next week...or even a couple of months. Trying to top tick a mania is a lesson in frustration. The reason the market dropped as precipitously as it did after the bubble is that nobody was left to fight it. Heck, maybe the fact that there are a few bears left is reason enough for prices to climb. I'm not smart enough to tell you when (or how) it's gonna end but I'll guarantee you one thing. Anybody who tells you, for certain, where the market will go shouldn't have the privilege of a platform.
Anyway...you get the gist. I don't claim to have any answers but, come on now, cheerleaders belong on the sidelines. There are plenty of talented strategists out there who add value and represent themselves (and their views) in an honest and forthright manner. Unfortunately, a few loud apples spoil the whole bunch.
Onward and upward, Chris Radigan nailed today's (rather vague) trivia question by being the first to guess "place of birth." Upon rereading the question, it's apparent that a lot of answers prolly fit but, as Chris was the first in (overall), he takes the tee. Late to the party? Fear not, Minyans, you can still find all your favorite fashion needs on Main Street.
As always, I hope this finds you well.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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