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Discipline over Conviction


Thirty two teeth in a jawbone
Alabama cryin' for none
Before I have to hit him
I hope he's got the sense to run

(Grateful Dead)

Let's see...we've traded right to resistance in the S&P, tomorrow's expiration and we've got a handful of unknowns in our midst. These are the types of situations that you want to play but, realistically, what's my edge? I'm uuber-bearish in the big picture but the overnight session will color tomorrow's action in a big way. What to do?

I pride myself on my discipline and, as such, I can't justify taking a big swing overnight. I put a leg into my metaphorical bear costume this morning near S&P 900 and seven hours later, we're still near S&P 900. I must stand up and practice what I preach and there will be no looking back, either way. I'm slipping that appendage back out of my furry costume and I'll leave one leg in(25% conviction) as a function of my big picture view.

Not always right...always honest. Good luck into the close

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

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