Random thoughts - Snoop style
• Just about everyone I have talked to agrees the environment has improved but that stocks already reflect the improvement and are due to correct.
• The only exceptions to the rule are those that think the market tanks.
• There is no evidence, either technical or fundamental, that suggest imminent demise.
• I am currently working on an update to my "Upside Ahead?" thesis piece I put out in early August...guess what it suggests?
• If everyone is quoting the optimism...wouldn't that make them skeptical...hmmmmm?
• Trader Dude!!!! Coming to see you and your "higher up" in December.
• I still say there is no one better (even if sick) than my bruddha Toddo.
• Emotions are not reality. If I wake up and expect a bad day, what kind of day do you think I am going to get? Don't forget that you can always start your day over.
• I took my two boys out to dinner last night and then we jumped in the Jacuzzi...now THAT is why I work!
• There is no history that suggests an ALREADY significantly weak dollar, a rising deficit or long-term overbought readings LEAD the equity market lower over the near or intermediate-term. To assume it does is guessing that it will.
• Gold made multiyear highs three times after the last recession too - 1993, 1995 and 1996. It wasn't saying anything.
• After the last recession, mid-cap stocks outperformed their large-cap brethren for 3 years...and then continued higher but at a slower rate.
• I am a lonely guy in Minyanville - outside of Daisy's company of course.
• If the SPX traded at today's multiple on next year's operating earnings consensus estimate (from Baseline), it would be at 1180 next year - 20x $59.13.
• The percentage of Federal Debt held by the public is now 35% of GDP. It was 50% in 1993-1995.
• Everyone wants a budget surplus...the last time we had one building was 1999-2001. So how did that end?
• I continue to expect a 5%ish correction in SPX, which would be enough to draw in more sustainable (and aggressive) buyers. The only problem is that soooo many are saying the same thing.
• I am a technician. I say that because I am not using trendlines and clear support and resistance levels because the media coverage of charts and indicators has changed the form of analysis. We won't know by how much until years from now. I guess that makes me a "cross dressing" strategist.
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