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Thoughts whilst packing


See you soon, toots!

• In the "More Information Than I Need to Know" file: I get my best ideas when standing in the shower or running around like a lunatic getting ready for a business trip. Odd, that.

• If your fund is interested in biotech stocks and you are in New York City, send me a note and let's see if we can get together for a chat next week as I'll be in town all week.

• I'm looking forward to hanging at the 'Ville while in the big city. Gonna have to beg off the sushi in advance, though. Probably means I'll be demoted from Professor to Adjunct.

• Hey Jeff, a friend of my dad's used to say the lack of hair means it's easier to get those messages from outer space.

• A dear friend of mine is quitting smoking. If you've got a spare second to send supportive vibes to Tory, I'd appreciate it. I'd rather like to have her around (and so would her kids) longer rather than shorter.

• The last three conversations I've had with biotech fund managers had them all wishing for lower prices to buy more stock, but willing to press bets at these levels.

• Jeff's comments about the business of the business interfering with the business (follow?) resonated with me.

• I get a lot of questions about why a chart guy decided to focus on something so long term as biotechs. Charting became so whippy that absent setting up a black box to run the trades, I didn't think a human could maintain an edge for much longer. The boxes became such a widespread substitute for fundamental analysis (the basis of TA, i.e. following investors with better information), that I questioned the continued utility of charting as a stand-alone investment strategy. Finally, one aspect of Reg FD was to reduce the number of "smarter" investors (by reducing inside information) so big counter-trend moves (the enemy of the chartist) would become less detectible on a chart in time to do anything about it. While fundamental analysis is no easier or less time-consuming, I decided it would provide a better edge over the long term.

• In some ways, Economics 101 taught us everything we need to know about the stock market. Supply, demand, and X amount of money chasing Y amount of goods is the bedrock of the market. That's why I always like to know how much money is coming into the market and how much money is sitting on the sidelines (or in alternate investments) that could come in to the market.

• In the long term, Boo will be right. What's the "long term"? Take a look at the demographic charts and see when the baby boomers will be likely to start converting their equities to cash for their retirement years. To me, nothing else in the bear case is as certain (and therefore persuasive) than this. Until then, I think Hoofy will have the upper hand.

• I still think there is a short bubble. The collected wisdom here at the 'Ville has given me facts showing it might be an artifact of increased derivative hedging, but I have a hard time believing short interest can continue to grow at 1-3% a month in an upward trending market.

• Does anyone else find the Flash ads for The Apprentice where the picture zooms in on a scowling Trump disturbing?

• As someone who has never used the Internet Explorer browser (and I've been on the web since Netscape Version 1.0), I am gratified to see Mozilla products gaining market share. Lazy programmers have accepted IE quirks as "standard" and there are far too many web sites out there that are not viewable in a standards compliant browser like Mozilla or Firefox. Perhaps the standard support line of "you should just switch to IE" will go away and I can finally purge the insecure application from my systems for good.

• How'd I miss the fact there is a craft powered by an ion drive winging its way to the moon?

• "The thin line between "crazy rips demonstrating a growing bubble" and "long-undervalued gems finally getting their due" is generally whether or not I own the ripper in question." - Jeff Macke on the Buzz.
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