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Young Guns


Good luck into the close!


There's battle lines being drawn
Nobody's right if everybody's wrong
Young people speaking their minds
Getting so much resistance from behind

(Neil Young)

The afternoon rhyme continues to climb as we slowly pass the ticking time. We sensed an upside shakeout coming and, sure enough, it's here with bells on. The question, still, is one of degree as we attempt to take the minxy temperature. Is she gonna stay hot enough to sneak to a new high? Or will the fever break and take Hoofy's heart with it? One thing for sure--the mercury's rising (in more ways than one!).

The scorecard for this upside retracement has some good (breadth, semiconductor leadership), bad (banks trade quite heavy) and ugly (the technical lunar eclipse still rests above). Still, if price is the ultimate diagnosis, the bulls can't complain with the traction reaction. The big question now becomes: is this a pause in paw's cause or can Hoofy declare that the machines are turned back on?

I'm still in the bear camp with the contingency that I'm allowing for (marginal) new highs to assert themselves (before a downside reversal). The combination of factors discussed, along with the action in gold, the dollar and the financials (Citigroup (C:NYSE) is now down), lead me to believe that a few bears got overzealous in their pursuit of fruit (after Friday's failure). Once they get shaken out (and the bulls let out that sigh of relief), the ursine will once again try to get ugly.

Applied Materials (AMAT:NASD) will set tomorrow's tech tone tonight with their release of quarterly earnings. The whispers (expectations) are high but that doesn't mean that sentiment won't embrace the chase. In addition to the noted crosscurrents, there's also a rotation out of the old school (financials) and into the master betas (tech). That makes sense from the standpoint that a) there's smoke in the mutual fund arena and b) fund managers are looking to find bang for their bucks.

I'm gonna take a deep breath and hit the finish line before climbing into bed and dancing with Ms. Nyquil. For those who've been involved with our philanthropic efforts, one of our beneficiaries has been quite active of late. Slowly but surely, Minyanville is helping these organizations better the lives of children. That, my friends, is pretty cool.

Have a peaceful night.
position in amat, c
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