Buzz Bits: Friday Nov. 11, 2005
Another Green Day. The time of my life.
Bell Buzz - Todd Harrison - 3:46 PM
- Look for Bill Meehan III each day on the Buzz as he looks back and grows forward. He's a chip off the old block. Those who were fortunate enough to know his old man know what a complement that is.
- The Minx is drifty towards the close and it looks as if Hoofy will stave off the supply once more. All in all, a strong week for our bodacious bovine and one that he'll look to use as a steppingstone for mojo when we power up on Monday morning.
- Boo can take solace in the fact that there are a lot less bears betting on the downside than there were a week ago. Small solace, but solace still.
- Inertia Alert! The XAU is up 2.5% as we ready to call it a week. A few alert (awake?) Minyans have noted the uber-light volume in some of these gainers. I "see" it, fellas, but I'm not reading into it that much. Longer time horizon allows for a looser grip on the handlebars.
- I'm getting ready to pull the shades on the 'Ville and sneak a visit with that guy called "Gym." I sincerely hope that ye all had a profitable week and that a mindful weekend awaits.
- May peace be with you.
Flashback - Bill Meehan - 3:08 PM
One year ago today found:
- Crude was trading at $47.50 while gold was $424.60
This day in Minyanville history...
- Brian Reynolds had an excellent piece (as always) on the results of the Fed auction, corporate bonds and buybacks.
In other years...
In 1946, the New York Knicks played their first ever game in Madison Square Garden. They lost the game to Chicago 78-68, a tradition they continue to this day.
Have a great weekend!
Pass the Bacon and a Few Pills - David Miller - 2:37 PM
Pfizer's (PFE) IDEAL data will be presented 11/15/2005 at 10:45:00 AM. There are no abstract data on this I could find, but it is reasonable to expect the data are already known to a relatively small number of market players.
Pfizer's torcetrapib data will be presented in a poster session beginning 11/15/2005 at 9am. This appears to be Phase II data showing a combination of torcetrapib and Lipitor and its effect on LDL and HDL. The abstract adds nothing new to what we know about this drug. A geekier abstract purports to answer the important question about whether torcetrapib can stimulate reverse lipid transport, but the study stopped short of investigating that.
The Abbott (ABT) data on TriCor is already available (and has been for a couple of weeks) in abstract form on the AHA site. The data on the abstract look incrementally positive. The poster, which will contain more data, will be shown beginning at 9am 11/15.
(All times Dallas time...)
Consumer Report - Kevin Depew - 2:12 PM
The Morgan Stanely Consumer Index (CMR) is back at the 492-494ish level testing resistance that is long, long-standing. This index has been at this level without breaking through (a breakout on a point and figure basis is 496) seven times now since December 2004.
Veteran's Day Salute - MV Respect - 2:00 PM
"For the past several decades, individuals in all walks of life have observed the cyclical nature of the stock market. Pundits have attempted to correlate these cycles with everything from referencing the position of the moon and stars to using highly sophisticated econometric models. This article, however, attempts to address the timely relationship between politics and stock market behavior."
Marshall D. Nickles, Ed.D., Professor of Economics, Graziadio School, Pepperdine University
Mini-Minyan Mailbag - John Succo - 12:29 PM
Even though the Fed will not be publishing those numbers, we should still be able to hear the chopper blades from high above. Let's hope he is not enlisting the help of this helicopter though.
Thanks for the vibes as usual!
M3 equals M2 (which we will still be able to get) plus four things: institutional money funds, large time deposits, Eurodollar deposits, and overnight repo agreements. The Fed will continue to give us institutional money funds but not the last three. We will never be able to get Eurodollar deposits. The other two we may be able to back out from the Fed's balance sheet at a later date.
But the direction is clear. The Fed wants to give the market less information, not more. Sheep are fine with this.
Pulse of the Planet - Jonathan L Schwartz - 11:23 AM
News, laughs and ideas beyond borders.
- China's trade surplus swells to record $80 billion+ in the first 10 months of the year.
- Honda to invest $100 million in Brazil
Italian government bails out Alitalia with $572 million stake. Rival air carriers upset. Rival air carriers to stay upset.
- After 12 years, Saudi Arabia officially endorsed as 149th member of WTO.
Since you asked... - Kevin Depew - 10:46 AM
Minyan Art asks about Qualcomm (QCOM), which is testing resistance at 46 here. A move to 47 breaks a spread double top, and charts a new high, obviously... though leftover resistance from the bad old days, 2001, remains overhead.
Mini-Minyan Mailbag - Kevin Depew - 10:15 AM
Yesterday the Russell 2000 (RUT) went from a sell signal at 652 to a buy at 665. As P&F charts typically filter out noise, has this type of action happened frequently?
Point and figure charts can only move one direction at a time and always in the direction of the current column first, if possible. Before you mark the chart, you always ask, can I continue in the column I am currently in? If in a column of Xs, you look to see if the high for the day takes the chart to that box, and if so, you draw in the X and that completes it. If in Os, you look at the low for the day, and if the low takes the chart to that box, you draw in the O and that completes it.
Yesterday the RUT began the day in a column of Xs. In the morning the stock moved to a low below 652.50 (without moving to a high of 665) so it appeared, intra-day, that a triple bottom break would occur. However, obviously, by the end of the day the index had reversed course and moved as high as 665, which meant that because the stock added an X, the potential break below 652.50 was erased.
This does not happen often. And when it does, it is typically short-lived. As well, this is a potential bull trap if the RUT reverses down (at 657.50) before hitting 667.50 (a new X on the chart). A bull trap is a triple top break by one box, which we have on the RUT, followed by a reversal back down without adding to the triple top.
Vibes from Snoop Tony Dwyer of FTN Midwest Securities - MV Respect - 9:51 AM
The recent new high in the S&P Financial Sector while the yield curve flattens reinforces the sector that correlates most directly with Commercial & Industrial (C&I) lending and NOT the yield curve.
The S&P Financial Sector experienced an OBVIOUS breakout, which tends to lead to a correction because if it is so obvious, most have acted on. This creates an overbought condition that needs to be relieved.
While we expect a correction in the sector (and market) given the recent run, the intermediate-term relative performance of Financials suggest any pullback should be limited and used as an opportunity to add to positions.
Making Rash Decisions - David Miller - 9:25 AM
A common side effect of new classes of cancer treatments is a rash. This gets a lot of attention in the clinical community, but I detect many investors don't much appreciate the magnitude of the issue. "Rash in exchange for killing cancer? Who cares?" is the general attitude.
Take a look at this Images in Medicine link from the NEJM showing this effect in an Erbitux patient. This is not a particularly severe case, by the way.
Onyx's (ONXX) sorefenib, ImClone's Erbitux, Amgen (AMGN)/Abgenix's (ABGX) panitumumab, and Pfizer's (PFE) Sutent are among the class of new oncology drugs with this problem. The rash problem with sorefenib and Sutent, it should be mentioned, takes a different form but is as annoying to patients according to the doctors we've spoken with.
Mini-Minyan Mailbag - Todd Harrison - 8:46 AM
"Toddo, Is this wishful thinking (I'm short QQQQ) or has the NDX broken its uptrend line from the 2002 lows, and just now rallied back to this broken uptrend line? Minyan M (Go Raiders! I'm in the East Bay)"
Could be, it's there. The thing about technical analysis is, if you look hard enough, you can usually find something to support your opinion. We shall see.
Just Win Baby!
Say what? - Kevin Depew - 8:28 AM
A look at commentary, opinion and analysis from around the world:
- Stephen Moore in the Wall Street Journal comes out against those coming out against.... the car: "The bicycle enthusiasts seem to believe that no one ever has far to go, that it never rains, that families don't have three or more kids to transport, and that mom never needs to bring home three bags of groceries." Well, I guess that settles that.
- Samuel Brittan writes in the Financial Times about the "Myth of the twin US deficits."
- Kaveh Afrasiabi says the US is driving a wedge between Russia and Iran as part of its policy against Iranian nuclear capabilities. Writing for the Asia Times, Afrasiabi outlines the objectives, targeted at Russia, of a US/European government proposal calling for Iran's nuclear fuel fabrication to take place on Russian soil.
- Just who are the rioters in France? Spiegel Online asks French immigration expert Laurent Mucchielli.
- The Washington Post editorial team presents "A Call to Inaction" with respect to taxing oil company "windfall" profits.
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