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Random Thoughts


Hang in there, Minyans. It's almost R&R time!

  • I've been trading the financials for fifteen years and can tell you that they always move farther than they should (both ways). With that said--and while I've been eyeing the traction in Citigroup (C) for over a month--I'm hangin' with Boo in this group (against a spate of tertiary exposure).

  • Boo and Gerry sitting in a tree. M-I-S-S-I-N-G.

  • The homies bounced in Compton yesterday and started to fill the Toll Brothers (TOL) gap. Any rally into the HGX 500-510 area will likely be met with a spate of technical supply.

  • Minyans first concerts? ZZ Top, Chicago, The Beatles (nice), Young Rascals, The Dead (wow!), Styx (me too), Stones, Huey Lewis & the News...

  • The XAU tested the top of our recent pennant yesterday and held the line. That would be XAU 107ish for those keeping score at home.

  • Critter perspective.

  • Vibes from Snoop Tony Dwyer of FTN Midwest Securities

    • The recent new high in the S&P Financial Sector while the yield curve flattens reinforces the sector correlates most directly with Commercial & Industrial (C&I) lending and NOT the yield curve.

    • The S&P Financial Sector experienced an OBVIOUS breakout, which tends to lead to a correction because if it is so obvious, most have acted on. This creates an overbought condition that needs to be relieved.

    • While we expect a correction in the sector (and market) given the recent run, the intermediate-term relative performance of Financials suggest any pullback should be limited and used as an opportunity to add to positions.

  • Mini-Minyan Mailbag

    "Toddo, Is this wishful thinking (I'm short QQQQ) or has the NDX broken its uptrend line from the 2002 lows, and just now rallied back to this broken uptrend line? Minyan M (Go Raiders! I'm in the East Bay)"


    Could be, it's there. The thing about technical analysis is, if you look hard enough, you can usually find something to support your opinion. We shall see. Just Win Baby!

  • T-minus three and a half weeks!

  • A bad omen for a Friday Snapper?

  • Freaky Friday Answers I Really Wanna Know...

    • If the purpose of the journey is the journey itself, what's the purpose of the purpose?
    • Can our tells be any flatter? (they're pretty, pretty, pretty, pretty, pretty, pretty flat)
    • Will Maxim (MXIM) fill that gap to $39?
    • Is this the "contra-rally" in the homies or will they have legs to HGX 509 (50 and 200-day convergence).
    • Do you see Google (GOOG) givin' back pa nub?
    • Can Hoofy work off the overbought condition as a function of time rather than price?
    • What was your first concert?

  • The Honeydew bank robbery?

  • "Yesterday, it was reported that Business Week's Inside Business column this week speculates on a potential Wachovia (WB) purchase of Capital One (COF), with a minimum bid that COF might accept being 13x 2006 EPS, which equates to $103/share (The stock tested very important resistance this morning. A move through 83 would be a triple top buy signal and change the context back to positive for this stock). I do know that both companies have a strong corporate presence in Virginia, (where Wachovia Securities is headquartered and where COF is headquartered) and Wachovia last week announced it was terminating its joint credit card issuance and marketing relationship with KRB (which is being acquired by BAC) and will re-enter the credit card business as its own issuer. Food for thought." -- Pepe Depew

  • It's been a heckuva week as we edge through the freak and set our sights on the important stuff. What's in my wallet for the weekend? Seeing some old friends tonight (good for the soul), spoiling the Queen tomorrow (good for our mojo) and watching my Raiders play the dreaded donkeys on Sunday. Next week should be a humdinga as we tee up the turkey trot and pick our trading spots. Good luck into the close and fare ye well!

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