I love this game!
Well the cool breeze came on Tuesday
And the corn's a bumper crop
And the fields are full of dancin' full of singin' and romancin'
The music never stopped
The midday Minx continues to slink as the bulls push the bears to the couch of their shrink. The usual suspects are flickering quick as the nets are up to their old tricks, the nuts are looking for their fix and traders juice their favorite picks. Breadth has edged 2:1 in the NYSE (marginally bullish on the Nazz), the semis are holding their gains (watch Intel (INTC:NASD)!) and crude (-3.25%) tries to spark a new spate of ursine hate.
The focus in the trading community is on the Microsoft (MSFT:NASD) special-K dividend and its impact on the broader market. The chatter is that a boat load of S&Ps (16,000) will be "to buy" on tomorrow's close and that's adding a bravado to an already bold bovine brood. That could/should be, based on what I'm hearing, but what we don't know is how many players are gaming that demand. In other words, when a catalyst is as telegraphed as this, the odds increase that the crowd will dilute the desired effect.
Turning my attention inward, I've been debating a few sides of the recent ride. On the one hand, Hoofy is on my left shoulder whispering the sage words of the Iron Horse who has been steadfastly constructive since the early parts of '03 (with a few isolated cautionary periods which, as skill would have it, perfectly nailed the pullbacks). He has been right as rain and it's saved some pain for the Red Dye contingent.
On the other shoulder, Boo keeps reminding me of something that Scott Reamer said last night at dinner. We were talking bubble and he opined that Mark Cuban was maligned for "cashing out" when he did (he missed the last leg of the rip). "It's better to be early than late," we agreed, and that history will likely repeat itself.
I'm trying to balance my perception that a pullback is overdue with the reality that the market acts fabu. I've been doing a bit less trading as I try to practice the patience that I preach while not losing the eye of the Zoë. That's one of the toughest tasks in our business and much easier said than done--when you have less risk on, there's a tendency to downtick in intensity. Confessions of a stock junkie!
I'm gonna jump back to the Buzz--as always, I hope this finds you with a bit of jingle in your jeans.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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