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Cool Breeze

By

I love this game!

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Well the cool breeze came on Tuesday
And the corn's a bumper crop
And the fields are full of dancin' full of singin' and romancin'
The music never stopped


(Grateful Dead)



The midday Minx continues to slink as the bulls push the bears to the couch of their shrink. The usual suspects are flickering quick as the nets are up to their old tricks, the nuts are looking for their fix and traders juice their favorite picks. Breadth has edged 2:1 in the NYSE (marginally bullish on the Nazz), the semis are holding their gains (watch Intel (INTC:NASD)!) and crude (-3.25%) tries to spark a new spate of ursine hate.

The focus in the trading community is on the Microsoft (MSFT:NASD) special-K dividend and its impact on the broader market. The chatter is that a boat load of S&Ps (16,000) will be "to buy" on tomorrow's close and that's adding a bravado to an already bold bovine brood. That could/should be, based on what I'm hearing, but what we don't know is how many players are gaming that demand. In other words, when a catalyst is as telegraphed as this, the odds increase that the crowd will dilute the desired effect.

Turning my attention inward, I've been debating a few sides of the recent ride. On the one hand, Hoofy is on my left shoulder whispering the sage words of the Iron Horse who has been steadfastly constructive since the early parts of '03 (with a few isolated cautionary periods which, as skill would have it, perfectly nailed the pullbacks). He has been right as rain and it's saved some pain for the Red Dye contingent.

On the other shoulder, Boo keeps reminding me of something that Scott Reamer said last night at dinner. We were talking bubble and he opined that Mark Cuban was maligned for "cashing out" when he did (he missed the last leg of the rip). "It's better to be early than late," we agreed, and that history will likely repeat itself.

I'm trying to balance my perception that a pullback is overdue with the reality that the market acts fabu. I've been doing a bit less trading as I try to practice the patience that I preach while not losing the eye of the Zoë. That's one of the toughest tasks in our business and much easier said than done--when you have less risk on, there's a tendency to downtick in intensity. Confessions of a stock junkie!

I'm gonna jump back to the Buzz--as always, I hope this finds you with a bit of jingle in your jeans.


R.P.

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No positions in stocks mentioned.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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