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Morning Randoms


Strategy was his strength and not disaster.


  • All kinds of systems issues this morning (and a feline scare to boot) got the critter mission in motion a bit late today. Apologies.

  • Not only is the VXO back at Bar Mitzvah levels, the S&P/VXO ratio is near an all-time high. The last time it tickled these levels on a closing basis was August 28, 2000 during the S&P's re-test and subsequent failure below its all-time intraday high of 1552.87 (March 24, 2000).

  • Still, as it stands, the S&P is basing on the 2004 highs.

  • Burnt rubber!

  • "We keep searching for new ways to describe the intensity of the buying interest towards corporate bonds. We have not seen action like this since the bubble days." -Brian "The Iron Horse" Reynolds in his morning column.

  • Mini-Minyan Mailbag: "I still have this April FT article pinned up in my office when I waded a bit into the gold muck back then. Now, we have a huge commercial short position (and large spec long position) and yesterday's MBH Commodity Advisers Daily Sentiment Index of 95% gold bulls (together with the 15-yr record low in the MBH 21-day Daily Sentiment Index on the USD with its attendant media bearishness) makes further upside a bit more difficult. I am a huge long-term gold bull, but a cautious one right here, right now. Just sharin'. Minyan JB

  • A possible explanation for the flaccidity in Pfizer (PFE:NYSE).

  • It's a market of stocks, not a stock market.

  • "Markets are non-linear, as there will always be quantifiable and unquantifiable aspects to the influences. Right now, the current trend, up from August 13th, is being embraced by the vast majority of investors. Basically everyone is already out of their seats and hearing the music; very few folks are looking for seats. Why and how this process plays out like this is incredibly interesting but ultimately unimportant. Turning points in trend are defined by the point at which the most investors embrace that trend." -Scott Reamer during yesterday's zesty 'fest.

  • Poor Petie!

  • The action in the uber-small caps yesterday was reminiscent of the height of the bubble. There were a slew of issues with multiple triple digit percentage gains---without news! I don't know what inning that game is in but I have little doubt that it'll ultimately be rained out.

  • Boo walked into my office late last night lamenting about the price action and offering lucid reasoning why it shouldn't be occurring. I asked him which critter was in fact irrational. The go along, get along bull who is making hay while the sun shines or the bear who is missing (or short) the move? In this business, how "smart" you are is directly correlated to how much money you make and your ability to keep it.

  • There is a MUCH bigger Minyan picture evolving.

  • LeBron the G.O.A.T?

  • I "think" the Minx needs to back and fill IF the end-of-year is to thrill. I'm not making any hard line stands (trading with tight discipline and defined risk) as the action is stronger than a mule's breath.

  • I remember in early 2000, established market sages (not gurus--there's a difference) were considered out of touch. Alotta those same people are equally bearish now, both on the U.S. equity market and on the dollar. And while they're being similarly slighted by the brazen bovine of today, I would be careful not to discount their views.

  • Stay humble or the market will do it for you.

  • Do you have any favorite columns from the 'Ville? We're putting together a presentation and need to include the top five of all-time. If anything has "stuck out" over the years and you would be so kind to share your thoughts, it would be much appreciated.

  • Good luck today.

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