Buzz Bits: Dow, Nasdaq Creep Higher
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Random Thoughts - Todd Harrison - 2:47 PM
- Toddo Heinz? Feels that way as I play Ketchup after the multi-city tour. Sorry bout the laggage in my scribin' vibes, Minyans, I'll be back in the saddle next week.
- Do you see the sticky green internals steadying the Friday tide?
- Six bucks due for every dollar earned? Yes, it can expand but no, it's most certainly not healthy.
- Have Minyan Mountaineers checked out the coverage from the Vail Daily (posted today)?
- Playing in the band? Energy Spiders, which was testing uber-support at XLE $50, are now probing the top end of the year-long range. That's why we don't anticipate the anticipator (either way).
- The funny thing is, Pep thinks I didn't see the sticks and jabs (snaps to Minyan Brooks for alerting me to the former). I did and I do and I'll simply say this. In the immortal words of Chuck Feldman, "Revenge is a dish that's best served cold!"
One - Kevin Depew - 1:45 PM
- Earlier I wrote about the TD-Sequential setups in homebuilding stocks. Those are BUY setups, not SELL setups. To clarify: After reviewing the potential for some additional counter-trend upside in the HGX, Toll Brothers (TOL), Hovnanian (HOV), Ryland (RYL), DR Horton (DHI), and Pulte Homes (PHM) have registered or may potentially register DeMark TD-Sequential BUY setups.
- A TD-Sequential buy setup typically suggests a pause in the present trend, which in this case is down. It is created by 9 consecutive price bar closes that are lower than the close 4 price bars earlier. Setups are usually "pauses" in the underlying trend, not reversals. The TD-Sequential countdown 13 phase is where price exhaustion typically occurs.
- Minyan Eric asked why I don't point out some DeMark TD-Sequential buy signals in the S&P 500. I would, but there just haven't been any buy signals in the past five trading sessions. None.
- Meanwhile, among DeMark TD-Sequential sell signals for S&P 500 stocks take a look at Sears Holging (SHLD) and Tyco (TYC).
- What do BAC and MBNA mean to you? Wrong.
- It means One bank. One card. One name that's known all over the world. One spirit. Get to share it, leading us all to higher standards. Ooooohhoooohhhh. Mmmmmmmmm.
Redundant About Redundancy - Adam Warner - 10:49 AM
So, is this what it sounds like, when doves... lose Fear in selling options?
The VXO tells the same tale as the VIX did last week. Both the 20 Day and 50 Day MA's are within a chippie field goal of their lowest levels in a decade. And it is important to note again that the last time we hit these levels was amid summer doldrums (of 2005), not the usually more active Fall season.
All this indicating, again, that not only are the Volatility Sisters at low levels, but they have set here for inordinately long duration. Which jibes with the fact that the last S&P selloff of as much as 1% magnitude occurred during the Taft administration.
Want more evidence of Complacency about Complacency? Here is a volatility graph of the VXO covering the last 2 years. Again, we are at low ebb.
But more importantly, how about the BCS dissing Rutgers? Perhaps a sitdown with this prominent alum is in order first.
Sellers Regaining Control: Dow Transports - Jess Thompson - 9:51 AM
My firm recently observed that sellers are regaining control of the order flow in various sectors (see the IWM & MDY charts I posted on 11/7). The Dow Transports (IYT) is another sector where sellers are regaining control.
In early November (see chart here) the buyers lost control (at 'X') as sellers were able to pressure IYT low enough to close under my firm's estimate of the primary bid line (light green dots) which turned the order flow bias from up to down.
When the order flow bias is down, the optimal tactic is to to reduce long inventory on rallies into the offer line (which is at 'Y' this week ) or, if aggressive, to increase short inventory in this same zone.
The price rejection this week at the offer line validates that sellers are regaining dominance as bids are being completely absorbed by bids. If sellers stay in control I see a potential downside objective near 80.
Position in IYT
What you need to know... - Jon Doctor J Najarian - 8:24 AM
Wal-Mart (WMT), Kohl's (KSS) & Macy's Bring Back Christmas! Three of the biggest retailers have found that eliminating or de-emphasizing Christmas may have hurt sales. Therefore, the three have major campaigns to label seasonal merchandise as "Christmas" and not "Holiday."
Disney (DIS) Profits Double – Hits Grey's Anatomy and Cars helped the entertainment giant post revenue of $8.8 billion and net profit of $782 million, or $0.36 per share versus Street estimates of $0.33 per share.
Merrill Lynch Upgrades Goodyear (GT) – Mother Merrill took Goodyear Tire & Rubber to neutral from sell, citing better-than-expected third-quarter earnings and improving relations with unions. Merrill said, "Our sell rating was based on an imminent strike, which we believed would be prolonged and costly," but now that the union has said it is ready to return to the negotiating table, Merrill sees a brighter future for GT.
Delta Swings to a Profit! The third largest carrier said it swung to a $52 million profit in 3Q thanks in part to a one-time gain due to a decrease in previously estimated pre-bankruptcy claims for restructuring of aircraft financing deals. Revenue in the July-September quarter rose 8.1% to $4.66 billion from $4.31 billion in the same period a year ago.
Position in WMT, GT
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