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Random Thoughts

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How could you forget our birthday, Toddo?

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  • I got a bit nostalgic when penning my opener today as I read through three years of year-end vibes. I also realized that we forgot to properly celebrate Minyanville's third anniversary on October 1st. Happy belated, critters, I'm a bad pop.

  • While I likely got lucky on my "post-Katrina '05 highs" crude vibe, I'll go out on a limb and say that Hoofy will get aggressive anywhere near $53.

  • "What will future Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke do with a bursting housing bubble? Dean Baker and David Rosnick of the Center for Economic and Policy Research believe we will soon find out. The two believe there are three patterns that are difficult to explain except as the result of an unsustainable run-up in home sale prices: 1. A sharp divergence between house sale prices and rents. 2. An extraordinary rate of housing construction. 3. A sharp decline in the savings rate." -- Pepe Depew on today's Buzz.

  • Perky? Chirpy!

  • The Russell 2000 (RUT) has broken down through the bottom of the range highlighted this morning, a triple bottom break.

  • No wonder?

  • "Well suck me sideways!" --Lloyd Christmas (11:24 Buzz)

    The morning muck has led to a Sammy slither as we try to make sense of the market so tense. With crude spillin' for a deuce (2%), s'more smoke in General Motors (-6%), Aunt Fannie checkbook problems (yawn) and the piggies poking at BKX 102, the critters are chewin' on a mouthful of muck.

    Rather than pull a costume from the closet, I've boarded some risk at Rotation Station. With the financials uber-extended, I entered some short side exposure with the thought that if GM (or FNM, or Delphi (DPH), or...) "matters," it'll manifest in this nest first. Besides, with the yield curve flattening and short rates rising, it's not like this sector has secular wind at its back.

    Against that bet, I've nibbled on some pharma exposure (as a ketchup play) while furiously scanning the energy space for further nibblage (I'll get more aggressive if/when we edge towards $53). And, of course, I'm watching our levels (S&P 1225ish/NDX 1635ish above, S&P 1210/1200 below) for clues nestled in thy muck. As always, I hope this finds you with a smile on your puss and some jingle in yo' jeans.

  • Dubya's approval ratings hit new lows last night. Before the right side of my inbox fills up, lemme offer that I share this information in the context of our current psychology bubble. With 57% of Americans now believing that they were deliberately misled into war, it would be myopic to ignore the score (regardless of whether you're a donkey or an elephant).

  • Conditioned denial is par for our course but please be careful not to entirely discount the contagion potential of General Motors (GM) and Fannie Mae (FNM).

  • The XAU flag is waving the other way (-1.5%) as it retests the top of yesterday's breakout. I'm in for a dime and in for some bullion.

  • The worst team in the NBA?

  • I've rolled any and all option exposure out to December and beyond. So you know (and if ya' care).

  • While a year-end rally remains within my probability spectrum, Boo remains in the game as he eyes nosty internals (2:1 negative) and leans against NDX 1640 acne.

  • Fare ye well into the afternoon swell, Minyans.


    R.P.
position in select financials, metal equities
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