Sorry!! The article you are trying to read is not available now.
Thank you very much;
you're only a step away from
downloading your reports.

Minyan Mailbag: The Spin on Cendant


Would you buy real estate on a muddy hill?


Professor Vitaliy,

I read the note (10/24) that you wrote about why you sold Cendant (CD) prior to the announced break up. Now that the company is going to split into four parts and since you previously believed the company was grossly undervalued, have you thought about wading back in?

I've come across some sum-of-the-parts valuations which place a value of $22 - $27 per share on the company and at its current price that would be a discount of roughly 20 to 35 percent. I believe it is undervalued; however, I worry about the combination of being at the peak of the business cycle, pricing pressure, and slackening demand in all of their businesses.

Any general thoughts that you may have would be welcome.


Minyan Chandler

Dear Chandler,

You are exactly right. I can see how CD could work out - absolutely. However, I share the same concerns and I believe that time is CD's biggest enemy. Given enough time, the housing market may decline (arguably not far around the corner), thus creating more uncertainty about the price it'll get for its real estate business. Economic slowdown, caused by weakening consumers, is likely to impact the travel business and the multiple it will receive when sold. The stock would not worry me that much at this level (not advice) but the upside you mentioned may or may not be there. Looking briefly at discounted cash flows, the stock does look very cheap, but my level of confidence about cash flows is not very high.


< Previous
  • 1
Next >
No positions in stocks mentioned.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Featured Videos