May peace be with you!
"A tad? A tad, Lloyd? You drove almost a sixth of the way across the country in the wrong direction! Now we don't have enough money to get to Aspen, we don't have enough money to get home, we don't have enough money to eat, we don't have enough money to sleep!"
--Harry Dunne, Dumb & Dumber
Elmer hikes into the 'Ville with his fourth step of the year and it's decision making time in the city of critters. We know that the first move (after FOMC announcements) is typically false and while today's trade was muted, it was certainly in the direction of Matador City. I've been watchin' Citigroup (C:NYSE), Intel (INTC:NASD) (on the heels of the dividend boost and buyback) and the breadth as the primary reads and they're (thus far) painting a pink (slightly red) picture.
The question I would like to pose to ye faithful is when the collective psychology will shift to the perils of tighter money. To say that the Fed has been accommodative would be like saying Tara Reid is flirtatious. Liquidity has been the primary driver of asset appreciation around the globe and across all classes. If the perception permeates that the keg is gettin' tapped, more than a few participants may look for the next party. And if the next fete is in Red Dye, that migration could get messy.
Either way, I think both Hoofy and Boo would agree that a few percent would be money well spent. We're quite extended and psychology is lopsided enough to warrant a shake out. As we've been saying, the Minx could correct back to multiple acne levels and still be considered "technically healthy." That's kinda what I'm thinking--pullback--and rather than trying to figure out if it's a bull trap or a healthy pause, I'm gonna jump off that bridge when I get to it.
Target (TGT:NYSE) will report in the morning while Dell (DELL:NASD) will take center stage after tomorrow's close. With Cisco (CSCO:NASD) doing a downside disco and the Fed toe pickin' higher, a bummer from Michael would likely frazzle some folks. I don't know if it happens--he always seems to put on a happy face and extol the virtues of the "haves"--but it's something to monitor as we edge towards the end of another long week.
I'm gonna hop so I can get this to you before thy closing bell tolls. I know a lot of you are frustrated--as am I, at times--but squeezing the handlebars isn't going to make the ride any smoother. The single best way to balance the fray is to take a deep breath and find your inner mojo. Trading--like everything else--is cyclical and if you learn to "know thyself," you can time your swings and make 'em count.
Fare ye well into the bell and have a peaceful night.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at email@example.com.
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