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Random Thoughts

By

May peace be with you, Minyans...

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  • I returned from my mid-morning meld to find-sur-prise, sur-prise, sur-prise--the ursine uglies wrangling for control. We've seen this movie before, of course, only to be saved by a late day flurry.

  • Do I think the bulls make a comeback today? Gun to head? No--my sense is that with year-end (for many funds) in the rear-view, some exhalation makes sense.

  • Could Snapper save the day? Yes--as long as the financials hang tough (as they are), that option remains a viable scenario.

  • Ewwwww! That's Gross! Bill Gross. From PIMCO.

  • My opener, which is getting its fair share of feedback, wasn't particular to yesterday's action, per se. I understand that it was month-end and, more importantly, it was fiscal year-end for a slew of mutual funds. File that fact away in your crowded keppe.

  • Would you like some crackers with that toe cheese?

  • We've been warming up on gold and metal equities of late and this morning, the GLD poked through the 200-day anew.

  • What the heck are druthers, anyway?

  • A number of good friends on the Street who have recently been laid off. In fact, their entire desk has been laid off! We've spoken about this dynamic for quite some time but, as we all know, the shift from perception to reality is a sharp and painful process. Our thoughts are with you and if there's anything we can do to help, please lettuce know.

  • "I didn't expect to be arrested," he said. "Obviously I touched a post-9/11 nerve." A nerve? Dude--that sensation you feel is the disconnect between the synapses in your brain!

  • Keep an eye on as it waxes on (+1.5%) and the Toronto exchange as it peels off (-2.5% on the heels of the earlier news).

  • What news? In response to the aforementioned Canadian government imposed tax on income trust distributions, this is what some listed Canadian royalty trusts are doing today:

    • Advantage Energy Income (AAV): -8.71%
    • Baytex Energy Trust (BTE): -14.57%
    • Canetic Resources Trust (CNE): -14.00%
    • Enerplus Resources Fund (ERF): -12.15%
    • Harvest Energy (HTE): -11.99%
    • Pengrowth Energy Trust (PGH): -12.24%
    • Penn West Energy Trust (PWE): -11.01%
    • PrimeWest Energy Trust (PWI): -9.27%
    • Provident Energy Trust (PVX): -8.37%

  • Weatherford (WFT) is edging back to the $40 handle (where it's paid to play in the past). I'm watching it like a hawk but for--and with--my money, I think the metals are the better risk/reward right now.

  • The weekly Investor's Intelligence survey shows a rise in bullish sentiment to 53.7%, the highest reading since Jan, from 52.7% prior and a drop in bearish sentiment to 28.4%, a six month low, from 30.1% last week.

  • In Flow's Diner, we saw an optimist scoop 5000 Citigroup March 50 calls and 7500 of the March 52.5's. Yes, he (or she) could be hedging short stock but I don't sense he (or she) is.

  • An 800% price appreciation? Who knew war could be so inflationary!

  • Finally, if you think you saw an alligator, you likely did. I'm hearing that "real money" asset allocators are swapping out of stocks (S&P and MidCap) and into treasuries.

  • I'm jacked to spend some vibe time with the savvy soothsayer Jeff Saut as my road trip weaves through Tampa. Minyans who wanna mingle for a massive Minyanfest can do so---while helping alotta kids!--at our December 1st NYC Festivus.

  • As discussed last week, I'm in the time-suck time warp this week and next as we saddle up the critters and take 'em on the road. In that vein, I'm heading to Sautville tomorrow and the left coast next week. My sincere apologies on the necessary absence---Minyans know that, if I had my druthers, I would be chillin' my heels right here in the 'Ville. And you can take me at my word, this trip will ensure that the critters are around for a mighty long time.

  • May peace be with you, Minyans, and let's hit year-end with some mindful vibes in our head and some jingle in our jeans.


R.P.

Position in financials, metals

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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