By Todd Harrison Nov 01, 2005 12:34 pm
All eyes on Elmer!
- The metal malaise continues as the dollar index tickles DXY 90ish. Gold $460 is a big level on a technical basis as it's A) a triple bottom B) the 50-day and C) the right shoulder of some textbook dandruff.
I'm a long-term believer in the metal complex and will greet further slippage with green (rather than red) tickets. And yes, I'm keeping the savvy soothsayin' sommelier's vibes in the back of my keppe as I craft my roadmap.
- Margin Call! "I can buy 100,000 SPY for $9.95 using my new backend platform (MUCH better than Instinet used to be). One of these days when the SEC figures out how brokerage firms are crushing people in fixed trading (I was in sales for 15 years) their profits will get demolished." (from a faithful Minyan)
- Professor Succo and I will be hosting a town hall chat at Northern Kentucky University on Monday (near Cinci). If you have an interest in attending, please ping Matt Ford for more details. And we'll have some big footsteps to follow!
- Chinese food for crude thought.
- "While the commodity markets appeared to show fear of the Fed, stock market bulls exhibited no such fear yesterday. In fact, they were partying as though they knew the Fed was about to stop hiking. If that turns out to be the case, however, I would expect an explosion in the metals and currencies. That explosion might not be today's business, as the Fed may choose not to stop (though I wouldn't be shocked if it did). But rest assured, whenever the Fed does stop, the metals and currencies will experience a sizable rally." -- Bill Fleckenstein
- Yes, there is alotta acrimony on Wall Street these days. It's a function of the "compression of return" and overcapacity that is plaguing the industry. Take a deep breath and focus on the solution rather than the problem. We can-and will-get through this. Togtether.
- Anecdotal housing thoughts from the high end.
- In anticipation of a calorically active holiday season, I've embarked on a massive November health push. Call it South Beach and color me hungry!
- Will the FOMC cite "stronger data" (as opposed to inflation) to justify a more hawkish tone? Elmer speaks on Thursday and that could serve as the stage to set expectations for a 50 bip December trip.
- Mr. Sullivan, I presume?
- Nice ass!
- Hamzei Analytics and Minyanville are excited to host Phil Erlanger, twice President of MTA and the former Senior Technical Analyst at Fidelity Research & Management in their chatroom. Phil will discuss Market Seasonality on Thursday, November 3rd, right after the close. Click here to register for this important chat.
- Say it ain't Theo!
- The notion of a bipolar stroller (in terms of a two-class society) continues to resonate and permeate. I'll flesh these thoughts out further in a coming column.
- The all-star guitar auction is slated for December 7th. After the $55,520 we raised during our September drive for disaster relief, I'm quietly confident that we'll do our part to give something back into the holiday season.
- "The single major issue with Dell (DELL) is that they have stumbled mainly on a way too aggressive pricing policy which has eaten into the margins. Gartner estimates that PC shipments in 2005 will be up over 12% but revenues will grow by less than 100 bips. Therein lies the problem. The PC business is running at a standstill, and as companies continue to make PC's cheaper day by day, margins will continue to get compressed. Also, Apple (AAPL) seems to be making some serious inroads into market share even though many still consider (maybe wrongly so) the Mac a niche product. Also, my techie friends tell me that more and more problems are cropping up with Dell systems, indicating a quality control issue in Round Rock as well. However, those thinking that DELL is a systemic problem in techland are plain wrong. At best it's company specific and at worst it's sector specific. Just IMHO." -- Sanjay Somaney on today's Buzz (position in AAPL)
- More Fleck!
- More vibes on the Japan stand.
- "With volume levels expanding, our breadth indications on the NYSE again eclipsed 3:1. Though we were willing to give Friday's strength the benefit of the doubt, yesterday erased any questions of confirmation. Strangely, even though Friday's breadth wasn't as firm as Monday's, the TRIN Friday was far more bullish than yesterday's. Volume flows (up/down) were more robust Friday, providing a .51 TRIN reading, yesterday they were evenly matched with breadth, and only provided a .92 reading. The price gain in SPX terms was not enough to qualify, but on the NASDAQ price and volume allied for the 2nd day of accumulation in a row." -- DeVibe from Lehman scribe Jeff DeGraaf
- Wasn't there an Andrew McCarthy movie like this?
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