By Todd Harrison Nov 01, 2004 3:10 pm
May peace be with you.
Let it go ...
The Minx slinks through the Monday links as the critters wonder what to think. The universal consensus that the market is poised to rip higher regardless of who snares the White House chair. Heads I win, tails you lose? That's the chant from the Matador Crowd and absent a contested election (which has also managed to edge into the realm of conventional wisdom), the ducks seemingly wanna fly north for the winter. Indeed, the mood in the 'hood feels a lot like the early October rally when traders loaded up for the inevitable acne.
Hoofy has a few things going for him these days. The brokers have busted out, the trannies are trading at five year highs (unconfirmed by the Dow), beta has been beautiful, retail has found a bid and crude has hiccupped 12%. A week ago, a slew of bears were scared of the unknowns and frightened of the unseen. Now, with the polls tighter than ever and the world just as fragile, it has become socially unacceptable not to be on the rally to '05 train. With the liquidity fluidity and the drum tight corporate spreads, it could definitely happen. With everyone seemingly set up for that move, however, the path of maximum frustration doesn't dictate that it will.
There hasn't been a whole heckuva lot to write about today as the ebb and flow has been rather slow. With that said, Scott Reamer has followed up his morning column with some additional thoughts on the Buzz. To quote, "the bearish divergences in ticks, breadth, and momentum are even more pronounced at today's peaks than at Thursday's or Friday's. Combined with the Demark trend exhaustion indicators and an all-but-completed Elliott wave up from last Monday's lows, it makes the long side here very high risk per unit reward)." His technical assimilation isn't advice but it does map out the alterative side of a trade that most seem to be leaning the long way on.
In the interest of honesty, I will share that my book will benefit from a trade lower but my risk is minimal. Consensus isn't a viable catalyst to spit into the wind but it does provide the backdrop for a vicious move. I have a bit of gamma both ways but the incessant bovine bravado has tempered my desire to fully hedge the upside. Absent a massive gap, I'll have the opportunity to trade around my book. If I don't get the chance, I will live with the decisions I make and consider it yet another learning experience.
To each their own, I suppose, and Minyans know that our goal is to add value to your process rather than dictate it. The one snippet of input that I can offer is that you must act on what you know, see, feel and think right now. No matter what happens--if we race to the upside or implode into a sea of downticks--there can be no wouldas, couldas or shouldas. That's wasted energy and it'll only impede you from making decisions consistent with future profitability.
Fare ye well into the closing bell and have a peaceful evening.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
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