Buzz Bits: Dow, Nasdaq Finish Ahead
Your daily Buzz highlights...
Editor's Note: This is a small sample of the content available on the Buzz and Banter.
Buzz in the Afternoon - Todd Harrison - 3:34 PM
- Congrats to Mexico Minyan Raoul. As it stands, he's currently the longest traveling Minyan to our December 1st MIM-CCA Festivus.
- How you play is a function of how you're paid. As I offered on the small screen, short-term opportunists can (will) lean against former resistance as current support. That's not wrong, as long as you're disciplined.
- And, it goes without saying, it won't protect against overnight gap risk.
- Talk about a reversal of fortunes (and P&L's). Energy and metals, which were the leaders of this morning's pack, are now the bleeders of an afternoon sack.
- If the dollar pops throught the multiyear trendline, will that put the kabosh on equities? Not in and of itself, but it is a supportive element, as was/is the carnage in commodities.
- Does anyone else have a serious case of the Mondays today?
Position in energy and metals
Somebody has some 'splainin' to do... - Kevin Depew - 2:25 PM
- See the BKX approaching its high for the day and about to turn the corner to the positive side.
- Add JB Hunt Transports (JBHT), Hub Group (HUBG) and Celadon Group (CLDN) to the list of new PnF buy signals today in the Transportation sector.
- Since August the US Dollar Index has given two consecutive PnF buy signals and the (.25x3) upside count is to 88.75.
- Hmmm, for a moment there I could have sworn that the link in the Minyanville Staff Buzz below to what was supposed to be the US Dollar Index made its way instead to an article on The Onion. Strange.
- Is that by chance a Dr. J customized bobblehead doll second from the left?
DXY and the Presidential Cycle - Bennet Sedacca - 12:59 PM
Those that follow my firm's work know we are into cycles. The strongest cycle of the past century in my opinion is the Presidential Cycle, which suggests that politicians will do whatever is necessary to 'dress up' the economy before election time.
See an important chart here (thanks NDR) as it regards Todd's recent Buzz. It is the dollar's tendencies as it relates to Presidential terms.
Looks to me like as you dress up the economy (I have to ask the question 'can you put lipstick on a pig?') then it should follow that stocks and the DXY should rally. Or are too many people now or soon to be positioned for such an outcome.
I saw some research from Citigroup earlier that suggested the buck had broken an 8 YEAR trend line against the yen. Powerful stuff. Stuff to keep our eyes peeled for.
Notes From the (Down) Underground - Laurie McGuirk - 12:14 PM
- London fixes north of $575. The physical market seems very buoyant... and deep pockets from what I hear.
- Now 3 days of fixes below $570 is a good tell in my opinion... One session doesn't count!
- We bought gold sovereigns on Thursday at my local shop -spot +4%.... at that spread I took what they had (plus a sexy 1866 Australia Sydney mint one that looked pretty for another few bucks extra...it looked nice and different!).
- I read Prof. Krueger's Weekend Randoms... the McGUIRK family monopoly game is played with real gold and silver coins in different denominations, country backing and years.
- Is a British Sovereign with a "young head" Queen Victoria worth more than a Sydney minted one of the same year?
- Monopoly is an amazing game for kids when you play with the real stuff. My kids know that no matter what the picture or markings on a coin, the gold content is what counts.
- Our "markers" like the boot and race-car are the only plastic bits with NO Paper allowed!
- You should see the mortgage terms in our games!! Being banker in Monopoly has real meaning.
Position in gold, silver
The Anti-Climax - Jeff Macke - 11:37 AM
Things on my radar as I "wait 'til next year" in every major sport...
- Bullish or bearish, you have to respect (or at least note) the fact that there is almost no energy to the down side. The question becomes one of whether or not earnings will be enough to give us another leg higher and how much good news has been priced in since the summer lows.
- Google (GOOG), I'm looking at you on that "good news" thing.
- Nice gap in Cablevision (CVC) but if the Dolans really wanted to impress me they'd buy me DirecTV (DTV) and/or strike a deal with TiVO (TIVO).
- For you Caribbean Minyans, the Mets are now favored to win the World Series at $31 on the ask to close at $100. As a longtime fan of "whoever beats the Dodgers" I'm almost shameless enough to claim the Mets as my team. Almost, but not quite.
Position in TIVO
Mini-Minyan Mailbag: October's Bad Rap - Jason Goepfert - 11:03 AM
"According to Stock Trader's Almanac, October has had the best percentage gain in the S&P of any other month of the year...so why all the fuss about this being such a "bad" month?" Minyan Ron
Ron, that may be true, but October gets its bad rap from the distribution of returns. It has the widest disparity between average (and maximum) gain and average (and maximum) loss.
What I also don't see mentioned much is the variation of intra-month returns. For example, over the past 15 years as you mentioned, I show that the S&P has gained about 270 total points in October. But 255 of those points came during the first and last three trading days of the month. In other words, 29% of the days accounted for 94% of the returns.
Beware the middle of the month, not the ends.
What you need to know... - Jon Doctor J Najarian - 8:07 AM
North Korean Nuke Test Numbs Asian Markets! The blast took place at 10:36 am local time Monday, or 9:36 p.m. Sunday Eastern and South Korean stocks, which had begun the day with modest gains, immediately fell more than 3%, before recovering somewhat. Tokyo was closed, so we won't get that market reaction for nearly 24 hours.
Airbus Head Out! According to published reports, Christian Steiff, who had became chief executive at Airbus in July, is poised to resign after losing the support of top EADS executives. Shares of EADS had recovered from July lows of $19, but should quickly test that low on this news.
PNC Financial (PNC) Buying Mercantile For $6 Billion – According to the Wall Street Journal, PNC plans to offer two-thirds of the deal price in stock and a third in cash. The deal price is 28% above Mercantile's closing price of Friday of $36.78 and 18% above Mercantile's historic high, $39.95.
Dolans Make Another Bid for Cablevision (CVC) – This time the family that controls Cablevision is offering $7.9 billion or $27 per share. That's 13% over the NYSE close. The Dolans lost out 16 months ago, but I guess they really want Cablevision and if I were a shareholder, I'd say yours!
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