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Random Thoughts


Rolling stops (for active traders) and risk definition (longer-term types) are good techniques in an unsure world.

  • Value Trap? If the Tigers can beat the Yanks with half the payroll, do higher prices necessarily bode well for the bigger, better, break-out theme?

  • Market breadth is laggy but as long as Hoofy holds S&P 1340, market bulls will put that tell in the 'pay no mind' club.

  • YouGoogle? The pace of MySpace? The look of FaceBook? It's enough to make a tech investor have some serious flashbacks. But while spates of valuation greatness litter the tech arena, please understand that, from a basis of comparison standpoint, we'll never--never--see the type of speculative excess that we witnessed in the first tech bubble. Alotta folks have unrealistic expectations with regard to investment returns and those need to be managed as we dig in our heels for the long road ahead.

  • Rolling stops (for active traders) and risk definition (longer-term types) are good techniques in an unsure world.

  • It is worth noting that the piggies have poked back below acne support. We're bent (not broken) but please keep BKX 114 on ye radar.

  • I'll be sneaking over to Bloomberg for a 1:45 EST TV shot. I'll be scooting from MVHQ a tad early as I forgot (and need to find) a tie.

  • "My firm focuses a lot on the AAII study, despite it being a volatile and not terribly broad based survey. But the data released is unusual to say the least. Bearish sentiment is rising as the market makes new highs and bullish sentiment is waning. This is ammo for Hoofy, all things considered. It is not THE most important set of data points but definitely to be considered. See the AAII Bear Chart. See the AAII Bull Chart." Professor Bennet Sedacca on today's Buzz.

  • Mini-Minyan Mailbag

    "Toddo, We awake this morning to a rogue nation testing a nuclear weapon, Gold $5 higher and stocks basically flat. What in the HR Pufnstuf is going on here? I think this event has a profound (though not unexpected) effect on the evolution of balance of power worldwide as the world's most dangerous technology moves into the hands of those committed to furthering their ideology. Remember the school drill of crawling under your desk? I fear for my children today. Respectfully, Minyan Dave."

    MD- From a "tape standpoint," this isn't entirely unexpected and, as such, the market has shrugged it off. From a "family" standpoint, I agree that we're edging into a strange new world. I alluded to the Roman Empire mystique in my Friday missive and I think that'll take some getting used to. To be clear--and before ye faithful flood my inbox--I love my country. I do feel, however, that the events of the last five years have drawn particular lines of what patriotism "is" and we mustn't let those cloud our assimilation of reality.

  • I think it's too early to "know" if commodities are (were?) in a cyclical or secular bear. My gut says the former but I'll be lightening my load as we edge back towards the mulityear downtrend (CRB 330).

  • Along those lines, I'm currently eyeing Weatherford (WFT)--one of my longs--as it tickles the July low and an area of failure in September.

  • Minyans who dug Vail will see alotta familiar faces at our December MIM-CCA along with some new vibage. In particular, Steve Galbraith, former Chief US Strategist at Morgan Stanley and currently a limited partner at Maverick, and Jeff Bernstein, Founding Partner at Keel Capital will join the content side of the equation. And at night, well, we'll be taking it to an entirely new level.


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Position in financials, metals, energy
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